UFC 267 kicks off with a nine fight prelim card, the first four of which are previewed here. These first four fights feature bouts across four different weight classes. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

UPDATE: The lightweight bout between Damir Ismagulov and Magomed Mustafaev has been cancelled due to Ismagulov missing weight by 7.5 pounds.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Allan Nascimento (Men’s Flyweight)

Tagir Ulanbekov

• CC Rating: 1610.1
• Division Ranking: 16th out of 31 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 292nd out of 500 men

Allan Nascimento

• CC Rating: 1600.0
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 31 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 315th out of 500 men

Ulanbekov came into his UFC debut just over a year ago as a prohibitive -500 betting favorite over Bruno Gustavo da Silva. He backed that up with a clear unanimous decision win, moving his pro record to an impressive 12-1. Of those 12 professional wins, half of them have come by way of submission. His track record has him as the #14 contender in the Cage Calculus flyweight rankings. His number comes under fire as he kicks off UFC 267.

Nascimento will make his debut at the age of 30. He’s compiled an 18-5 record in other promotions prior. He has had two title shots in other promotions, but fell short in both efforts. Like his opponent, half of his wins have come by way of submission. If the high-level grappling of each man cancels the other out, it is worthwhile to note that Ulanbekov owns the only KO victory of this pairing.

Ulanbekov comes in as a narrow favorite. Considering how debut fighters have performed as of late, you may consider editorializing steeper odds in your head. As it stands, Ulanbekov only has a couple of percentage points tipping his way to make him the CC favorite.

CC Projection: Tagir Ulanbekov (51.5%)

Damir Ismagulov vs. Magomed Mustafaev (Men’s Lightweight)

Damir Ismagulov

• CC Rating: 1756.6
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 72nd out of 500 men

Magomed Mustafaev

• CC Rating: 1652.3
• Division Ranking: 38th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 212th out of 500 men

The former M-1 lightweight champion, Ismagulov has been no less impressive in the UFC. He is undefeated in four fights since joining the big promotion. All four have come by way of unanimous decision, but he does have ten finishes in his 20 professional wins. Ismagulov’s career record has him as the #12 ranked contender in a very talent-heavy lightweight division. He’s not yet gotten the same respect from the UFC. With one of his wins being against UFC-ranked Thiago Moises, if Ismagulov can get a fifth win to start his UFC career, they might have to pay attention as well.

While all the attention is on Islam Makhachev later in the evening, he isn’t the only Dagestani lightweight in action. Mustafaev has had a tough road in the UFC thus far. He was finished by Kevin Lee in his debut. He also lost a split decision to ranked Brad Riddell (by the UFC, unranked by Cage Calculus). He did, however, score a first round KO of Rafael Fiziev in between (Fiziev is also ranked by the UFC, but not Cage Calculus). His road doesn’t get easier against Ismagulov, but Mustafaev can stay in the conversation in this division and put an official UFC ranking in his sights with a win.

Ismagulov has been too impressive throughout his career to not be a favorite in this one. The forecast believes he continues his unbeaten streak in the UFC.

CC Projection: Damir Ismagulov (64.6%)

Hu Yaozong vs. Andre Petroski (Men’s Middleweight)

Hu Yaozong

• CC Rating: 1466.9
• Division Ranking: 65th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 494th out of 500 men

Andre Petroski

• CC Rating: 1559.7
• Division Ranking: 53rd out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 401st out of 500 men

Yaozong started his MMA career 3-0 before jumping to the UFC. He lost each of his two fights in the UFC before taking a nearly three-year hiatus. He finally makes his return this Saturday. Yaozong came in as a very narrow favorite in both of his fights, but both fights were against low ranked opponents. Despite the time away, Yaozong is only 26 years old. Perhaps we can attribute the early woes to him being rushed into the UFC at such a young age. Now, all we have to go one is what he did in 2018.

Petroski has quite the opposite story. He didn’t approach the big promotion until the age of 30 earlier this year as a contestant on the Ultimate Fighter. He didn’t win, but impressed boss Dana White enough to earn a shot anyway. He backed up the confidence by getting a ground and pound KO in the third round. He can continue to justify his contract with a win Saturday.

The model hasn’t seen enough to believe Yaozong can handle the competition in the UFC. Petroski comes in as a clear favorite.

CC Projection: Andre Petroski (63.0%)

Makwan Amirkhani vs. Lerone Murphy (Men’s Featherweight)

Makwan Amirkhani

• CC Rating: 1630.7
• Division Ranking: 32nd out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 248th out of 500 men

Lerone Murphy

• CC Rating: 1677.6
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 168th out of 500 men

“Mr. Finland” Amirkhani (pictured above left) started his UFC career in 2015 with a knockout win in just eight seconds. He then strung together a four fight win streak. Since then, however, his record’s been fairly mixed. After the conclusion of that four fight win streak, he’s gone 3-4, including losing each of his last two. He is still dangerous on the ground. Eleven of his 16 professional wins have come by way of submission. Despite his struggles of late, he’s never to be underestimated.

Murphy (pictured above right) enters this bout an undefeated 10-0-1, having a draw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut at UFC 242. Murphy comes in replacing an injured Tristan Connelly on relatively short notice. Murphy will showcase superior striking, having 60 percent of his wins coming by KO. It promises to be a clash of styles between a submission artist and a striker.

The forecast doesn’t see Amirkhani as strong enough, especially given his struggles, to be the first to defeat Murphy.

CC Projection: Lerone Murphy (56.7%)

Photo Credit: DailyMail