The storyline that dominated the week leading up to UFC Vegas 41 was ultimately Paulo Costa’s botched weight cut (or perhaps his lack of effort to cut weight at all). In the end, the gamesmanship did not end up ruining a main event many had circled on their calendars. Fans were treated to thirteen other bouts that had implications across the UFC’s many different weight classes.

Before we get into what we learned from the fights, we can definitely say that the Cage Calculus forecast learned some humility on Saturday. Cage Calculus favorites performed dismally, going 3-10-1. It was time for some reversion to the mean. Prior to Saturday, the forecast favorites were winning at roughly a 75 percent clip. Yet, fighters rarely, if ever, come into fights boasting higher than a 75 percent chance in the forecast. Eventually, it would have to come down to earth, and rightfully so. Because the forecast is probabilistic, it should not get every fight correct. It generates percentages. If 60 percent favorites won 100 percent of the time, the forecast couldn’t be considered accurate, even if it’s fun to see happen. In a way, this was the model working exactly as intended. The correction just so happened to come on one night.

But, without further ado, here are just some of the things we learned inside the cage Saturday night at UFC Vegas 41.

Marvin Vettori is as Game as They Come

A vast majority of fighters in the UFC would have taken their show money and gone home after what Paulo Costa did with his weight cut. Vettori knew he would be going in against a bigger opponent who did not even attempt to undergo the pains of a weight cut during fight week. Luckily, Vettori was given enough of a head’s up that he saved himself most of the process as well. The size difference was evident to anyone watching at home. Yet, Vettori was undeterred and outlasted Costa with superior cardio, a stiff jab, and a crazy strong chin.

Vettori certainly gained the respect of much of the MMA community, including UFC boss Dana White. Taking a fight under those conditions was already a gutsy move. Going on to win it could vault Vettori back into the middleweight title picture, especially considering how much this ingratiated him with matchmakers. He might now only need another win (or potentially two) to get another crack at Israel Adesanya. Fans, experts, and the Cage Calculus data suggest a fight with either Derek Brunson or Sean Strickland might be next. But, with Brunson seemingly content to wait for his title shot and Strickland holding out for a chance to take on Luke Rockhold, that might not be an option. Perhaps Jared Cannonier, who’s called for a title shot recently, but needs to fight for financial reasons, could be a good matchup?

A Move to Light Heavyweight Not a Bad Thing for Paulo Costa

After all the antics, UFC President Dana White said Costa would have to fight at light heavyweight going forward. This seemed like a punishment, but given how things played out Saturday, that is probably the correct move for Costa, voluntary or not. The loss to Vettori set back Costa’s hopes of getting back into middleweight title contention in the near future back very significantly. Moving up a weight class could put him one or two impressive wins away from getting a shot at the belt, which will be on the line in Abu Dhabi in a matter of days.

The top of the light heavyweight division is very old for the UFC. The champion and #1 contender (Jan Blachowicz and Glover Teixeira) are 38 and 41 years old respectively. Anthony Smith has been around for quite a long time himself, despite being only 33. The only other fighters in the title picture at the moment are Jiri Prochazka and Aleksandar Rakic. If Costa can secure a matchup with Smith, Rakic, or Prochazka and pull out a win, he’d likely get fast tracked to a title shot a la Jessica Andrade’s move to flyweight earlier this year. While this might not have been in the cards, it is probably the best thing for Costa.

Jess Clark Picks Up Where She Left Off

Jessica-Rose Clark spent over a year out of the octagon due to a knee injury. After Maycee Barber and Aspen Ladd returned from similar injuries looking like shells of their former selves, one was left to wonder whether Clark’s career might take the same path. However, Clark looked plenty comfortable in a unanimous decision victory Saturday night. With the win, she managed to sneak her way into Cage Calculus’ bantamweight top 15 rankings. Maybe another win earns her a look from the official UFC rankings.

Francisco Trinaldo Might Need Some Tougher Competition

In our last fight night recap, we talked about the continued success of longtime vets, Jim Miller and Andrei Arlovski. Perhaps we need to add Francisco Trinaldo to the unofficial “Age is Just a Number” caucus. Trinaldo is now winner in four of his last five fights after overcoming a point deduction to eek out a decision win. That was enough to boost his CC rating high enough to crack the Cage Calculus welterweight top 15. He may well be a long way from earning that distinction from the UFC brass, but they might want to at least consider giving him someone close to the rankings. He’s proved he’s still a step ahead of mid to lower tier competition.

Newcomers Came With Too Much Hype

A big part of the reason the forecast went 3-10-1 Saturday was that each of the four UFC newcomers were pegged as favorites by the model and all four came up empty-handed. Three had won titles in previous promotions, with impressive records. The fourth, David Onama, came in undefeated. The model found their comeptitors in the UFC to be lacking enough that a pre-UFC pedigree was sufficient to put them over the top. Yet, the fighters already on the roster held the line. This just goes to show how difficult it is to get to the UFC, how strong the talent pool is, and that it’s not easy to get the first win monkey off your back.

Randa Markos Bears Down Hard

A loss by Markos very likely would have meant being cut by the UFC. She came in on a four-fight losing streak. Her last fight was a loss to a promotional newcomer. She came into Saturday facing Livinha Souza, a fighter the forecast saw as one of the most underrated fighters on the women’s side. Souza was ranked #8 in the Cage Calculus women’s strawweight rankings and was approaching the overall women’s top 15 with another couple of wins. On the other hand, Markos’ losing streak saw her quickly approaching being the lowest rated female fighter in the model. As we stated at the outset, there has to be some reversion to the mean and Markos course corrected in a big way. Souza will have to do quite a bit to gain the respect from the UFC that she had been getting from the algorithm.

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