The main slate for UFC Vegas 41 features a six fight card. The card is headlined by a matchup between top middleweight contenders, Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori. However, due to a botched weight cut on Costa’s part, the bout will be contested at light heavyweight. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

Nick Negumereanu vs. Ike Villanueva (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Nick Negumereanu

• CC Rating: 1576.0
• Division Ranking: 31st out of 41 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 362nd out of 499 men

Ike Villanueva

• CC Rating: 1467.4
• Division Ranking: 41st out of 41 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 493rd out of 499 men

The Romanian Negumereanu is coming off of his first win in the UFC. He defeated Aleksa Camur via a split decision in June. No doubt he’s hoping to get a more decisive win this time. The lone blemish of Negumereanu’s 10-1 career came in his UFC debut against Saparbeg Safarov. Prior to joining the UFC, Negumereanu was light heavyweight champion in the RXF promotion. With this weight class opening up with Jon Jones leaving and with the champ and top contenders being up there in age, there is no time like the present to start making moves.

Villanueva currently resides in the basement of the light heavyweight division. He is Cage Calculus’ lowest rated fighter at 205 lbs. He strung together a relatively unimpressive 17-9 record prior to joining the UFC and has gone 1-3 since. He was, however, the Fury FC light heavyweight champion. He will look to reclaim that former glory against another former champ to unshackle himself from being the lowest fighter in the division.

Villanueva has been too disappointing in the UFC, however, for the forecast to make him anything other than a steep underdog.

CC Projection: Nick Negumereanu (65.1%)

Dwight Grant vs. Francisco Trinaldo (Men’s Welterweight)

Dwight Grant

• CC Rating: 1590.0
• Division Ranking: 60th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 339th out of 499 men

Francisco Trinaldo

• CC Rating: 1759.1
• Division Ranking: 16th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 67th out of 499 men

Each of Grant’s last two wins have come via split decision. Meanwhile, his last defeat came by knockout just two minutes and 24 seconds into the first round. He is 4-2 in the UFC, but his wins have not been clear or convincing in quite some time. His last finish was in February of 2019. Still, it’s hard to take away from him the fact that he is 3-1 in his last four fights. They may not be pretty, but he has been getting the job done.

This fight will be Trinaldo’s 24th inside the UFC octagon. Over the course of his UFC career, Trinaldo has strung together a 16-7 record, being one of the more consistent faces in the welterweight division. There was a time where Trinaldo was riding a seven-fight win streak. That certainly put him in the running for a title shot, but that momentum died when he was submitted by Kevin Lee. Unfortunately, he’s gone 5-3 since and never got near title contention again in his nine-year career. A win tonight would get him into Cage Calculus’ rankings, but his shot at getting the respect he deserves from the UFC may well have come and gone.

The forecast respects Trinaldo’s longevity and record to make him an overwhelming favorite to crack the top 15 next week.

CC Projection: Francisco Trinaldo (72.6%)

Alex Caceres vs. Seung Woo Choi (Men’s Featherweight)

Alex Caceres

• CC Rating: 1641.0
• Division Ranking: 29th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 228th out of 499 men

Seung Woo Choi

• CC Rating: 1641.1
• Division Ranking: 28th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 227th out of 499 men

Another veteran of the game, Caceres made his UFC debut back in March of 2011. He has been a very streaky fighter during his long career. He started losing three of his first four in the UFC before going on to win five straight (one of those five was overturned for a failed drug test however). He then strung together three straight losses. Currently, Caceres is back on the upswing, having won each of his last four. Given he is only 33, it may not be too late to make a run at the rankings, but he will have to stay hot for a bit longer to do so.

Choi came into the UFC as a two-time Top FC featherweight champion. He started out disappointingly, with two straight losses. However, he’s since righted the ship with three straight wins, each more impressive than the last. His most recent was a first round knockout of Julian Erosa that earned him performance of the night honors back in June. If he continues his upward trajectory, he could be someone to watch.

The matchmakers couldn’t have made this one more tight if they tried. Separated by only a couple hundredths of a percentage point, Choi has the slightest edge you will ever see without it being an outright tie.

CC Projection: Seung Woo Choi (50.0%)

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Joselyne Edwards (Women’s Bantamweight)

Jessica-Rose Clark

• CC Rating: 1555.1
• Division Ranking: 18th out of 28 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 77th out of 121 women

Joselyne Edwards

• CC Rating: 1552.5
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 28 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 80th out of 121 women

It’s been over a year since the Australian Clark graced the UFC octagon. In her most recent bout, she pulled out a KO win over Sarah Alpar via a knee. What made it all the more impressive is that post-fight scans revealed she had turn her ACL during the fight. Now, she returns, hoping to build off of her performance and first win as a bantamweight. Clark was previously 2-1 as a flyweight before having issues cutting weight and ultimately deciding to make the move to bantamweight.

Edwards is 1-1 in her UFC career. However that one loss came against Karol Rosa, Cage Calculus’ #6 ranked bantamweight contender. In her debut against Wu Yanan, Edwards cruised to a unanimous decision victory. Edwards takes this bout with Clark after her previously scheduled fight in August was cancelled when Zara Fairn withdrew. At only 26, Edwards has plenty of time to establish herself in this division.

In another nail-biter, the forecast gives the slight edge to the veteran, Clark.

CC Projection: Jessica-Rose Clark (50.4%)

Grant Dawson vs. Ricky Glenn (Men’s Lightweight)

Grant Dawson

• CC Rating: 1744.0
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 81st out of 499 men

Ricky Glenn

• CC Rating: 1665.7
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 188th out of 499 men

The men’s lightweight division may be the deepest in all of the UFC. Yet, the 27 year-old Dawson is proving he belongs in the top tier no matter where he fights. He comes in as Cage Calculus’ #14 ranked contender. He is 17-1 for his entire career, including a perfect 5-0 since joining the UFC. He recently made the move back to lightweight from featherweight after troubles cutting weight. He turned in a performance of the night in his first fight at lightweight by knocking out Leonardo Santos in literally the final second of their fight. Dawson may not be a household name, but he is must-watch if he’s on a card and the name recognition may soon follow.

Glenn, like Dawson, is a former featherweight who recently made the jump due to weight cut issues. He too turned in a highlight reel KO in his return to the lightweight division. Glenn is a former PFL featherweight champion. Since joining the UFC, however, he’s turned in a 4-3 record. Maybe the new weight class and momentum from his last fight will give him the boost he needs to stop the momentum of a fighter like Dawson.

Dawson impresses viewers and forecast code. He comes in as the favorite to continue his hot streak.

CC Projection: Grant Dawson (61.1%)

Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Paulo Costa

• CC Rating: 1767.2
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 60th out of 499 men

Marvin Vettori

• CC Rating: 1737.5
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 89th out of 499 men

Costa is coming off of his first loss as a professional in his title challenge against Israel Adesanya roughly a year ago. Costa was outclassed before ultimately being finished. Costa has blamed the Abu Dhabi sleep schedule for him not being himself out there. Speaking of not being himself, Costa appears to have made no effort to cut weight for this fight. He announced earlier this week he weighed 211 lbs and would not make the middleweight limit. He agreed to a catchweight bout at 195 lbs before again shifting to go up a full weight class to light heavyweight. When he’s on, Paulo Costa is as dangerous as anyone out there, with 12 of his 13 wins coming by finish (11 KOs, one submission). We’ll see soon enough what difference some of the outside factors play into his performance.

Vettori, the “Italian Dream,” has made the most of his opportunities of late. He took a short notice fight against contender Jack Hermansson to replace the injured Darren Till. Vettori won convincingly. He was then slated to fight Till himself before Till again withdrew due to injury. Vettori instead dominated Kevin Holland with superior wrestling. Vettori was able to spin this into a title shot against the aforementioned Adesanya. That night it was his turn to be dominated. Vettori had no answer for Adesanya’s striking. Proving he’s as game as they come, Vettori was still willing to take a fight against an opponent who showed up to fight week 25 lbs overweight. A win would re-insert himself into the title picture.

The forecast gives Costa the edge. What effect the weight cut or lack thereof will play into the outcome remains to be seen and the forecast does not take that into account. Even if it could, one wonders how it would eve try to guess how this one is going to go.

CC Projection: Paulo Costa (54.3%)

Photo Credit: MMA Junkie