UFC Vegas 41 features an eight-fight prelim card, the final four of which are previewed in this post. You can find the previews for the first four here. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Laureano Staropoli vs. Jamie Pickett (Men’s Middleweight)

Laureano Staropoli

• CC Rating: 1541.3
• Division Ranking: 60th out of 65 middleweight
• Overall Ranking: 431st out of 499 men

Jamie Pickett

• CC Rating: 1476.7
• Division Ranking: 64th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 492nd out of 499 men

The Argentine Staropoli started his UFC career 2-0 with a win over Hector Aldana and a sizable upset against Thiago Alves. However, Staropoli now finds himself in the midst of a three fight losing streak. Two of those three came against fighters about the overall UFC average for CC ratings. Staropoli has also yet to be a part of a finish in his UFC career, with all five fights ending in a unanimous decision. This will be Staropoli’s second bout at middleweight, as he had trouble making weight for his fight against Tim Means in August of last year.

Pickett is also on a losing streak of his own. He has two losses in as many bouts since he joined the UFC. He lost his debut to fellow newcomer Tafon Nchukwi via unanimous decision. In his second try, he was finished quickly by Jordan Wright. Given Pickett didn’t have much pre-UFC star power (including two failed attempts to win on Dana White’s Contender Series), he already started low in the rankings. A loss tonight would put him in danger of being the lowest rated middleweight in the UFC.

The forecast sees it as more likely that Staropoli breaks his losing streak in this one.

CC Projection: Laureano Staropoli (59.2%)

Tabatha Ricci vs. Maria Oliveira (Women’s Strawweight)

Tabatha Ricci

• CC Rating: 1515.7
• Division Ranking: 40th out of 47 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 103rd out of 121 women

Maria Oliveira

• CC Rating: 1560.0
• Division Ranking: 25th out of 47 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 74th out of 121 women

Ricci will get another chance to prove herself after being demolished by Manon Fiorot her last time out. Though, given Fiorot’s recent run, one can hardly blame Ricci for dropping that bout. Ricci will move down in weight from flyweight to strawweight for this fight. This might make things better for the Brazilian, given that Ricci’s entire LFA career was fought at strawweight, not flyweight. Maybe the move back to her natural weight class will help her along to her first UFC win.

She’ll face off against UFC newcomer and fellow Brazilian, Oliveira. Oliveira won the BFS strawweight championship back in 2017. She has since faced off against some top level competition. In her one appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, Oliveira faced off against Cage Calculus’ #7 overall female fighter, Marina Rodriguez. Rodriguez came out with the win, but that likely provided valuable experience for Oliveira.

The forecast tips the newcomer and former champion to get the win in her debut.

CC Projection: Maria Oliveira (56.3%)

Mason Jones vs. David Onama (Men’s Lightweight)

Mason Jones

• CC Rating: 1573.3
• Division Ranking: 66th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 368th out of 499 men

David Onama

• CC Rating: 1580.0
• Division Ranking: 63rd out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 354th out of 499 men

After making his UFC debut in January, this will already be Jones’ third fight in the big promotion. In that January debut, Jones suffered his first professional defeat, having gone a perfect 10-0 prior. He wasn’t any luckier next time out against Alan Patrick in June. Coming in as a -305 betting line favorite (but actually a slight Cage Calculus underdog), an accidental eye poke rendered the fight a No Contest. Being unable to secure another tilt with Patrick, Jones looks to be able to get his inaugural UFC win against a fellow fighter in search of his first win.

The Ugandan Onama comes in sporting a perfect 8-0 record. All eight of his wins have come by way of finish. What’s perhaps even scarier is his ability to vary his finishes. Five wins have come by KO or TKO and three have come via submission (two guillotine chokes, one rear naked choke). His UFC premiere ought to bring fireworks and likely won’t go to the judges’ scorecards.

In a razor thin projection, the forecast favors the newcomer to get the job done.

CC Projection: David Onama (51.0%)

Jun Yong Park vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Men’s Middleweight)

Jun Yong Park

• CC Rating: 1598.8
• Division Ranking: 41st out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 315th out of 499 men

Gregory Rodrigues

• CC Rating: 1560.2
• Division Ranking: 52nd out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 400th out of 499 men

Back in October of last year, Park (pictured above) broke the UFC record for most ground strikes landed in a single bout with a staggering 258. The man known as the “Iron Turtle” backed that up with a win earlier this year against the aforementioned Nchukwi. He is now the holder of a three fight win streak and is slowly (as his nickname might suggest) climbing up towards relevance in this middleweight division. With his superior ground game, Park will look to secure his first finish in the UFC to add to his win total.

Rodrigues is also the holder of a three fight win streak of his own. The most recent of which came in his UFC debut against Dusko Todorovic back in June. Rodrigues has a relatively even smattering of victory methods with four submissions, four KOs, and two decisions over his 10-2 career. He can start to prove himself in this division by remaining undefeated in the UFC and beating the streaking Park.

Given Park’s recent run of success, the forecast gives him a decent chance to continue.

CC Projection: Jun Yong Park (55.5%)

Photo Credit: Business Insider Australia