UFC Vegas 41 features an eight-fight prelim card, four of which are previewed in this post. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Zviad Lazishvili (Men’s Bantamweight)

Jonathan Martinez

• CC Rating: 1604.8
• Division Ranking: 44th out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 302nd out of 499 men

Zviad Lazishvili

• CC Rating: 1640.0
• Division Ranking: 38th out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 234th out of 499 men

Though Martinez has not fought since March, he has been scheduled against four different opponents in that time span. Nathaniel Wood pulled out of a September bout due to injury. Wood was replaced Marcelo Rojo. However, Martinez botched his weight cut and the fight was scrapped. Martinez’s original opponent for this card was Aaron Phillips, but Phillips came down with an illness. Martinez is finally set to try and improve his 4-3 UFC record against newcomer Lazishvili. Martinez has finishes in two of his four wins in the UFC. His last fight out was a KO loss to Davey Grant. Martinez has never lost two fights in a row in his career.

Lazishvili would like to continue the Georgian run of dominance in the UFC, given the recent success of his countrymen Giga Chikadze and Merab Dvalishvili. He is a perfect 12-0 in his career. His most recent fight saw him pull an upset of Ricky Steele for the LFA bantamweight championship. He finished Steele with a rear naked choke in the first round. His performance prior to joining the UFC led the forecast to already place him roughly in the middle of the pack to start his career in the big promotion.

Lazishvili’s prior dominance positions him as a rare forecast favorite in his UFC debut.

CC Projection: Zviad Lazishvili (55.0%)

Livia Renata Souza vs. Randa Markos (Women’s Strawweight)

Livinha Souza

• CC Rating: 1666.9
• Division Ranking: 9th out of 47 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 18th out of 121 women

Randa Markos

• CC Rating: 1456.5
• Division Ranking: 45th out of 47 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 118th out of 121 women

The former Invicta straweight champion Souza, came in like the champion she is, starting her UFC career 2-0, including a first round finish. However, she has now lost two of her last three and her position in the Cage Calculus strawweight rankings is slipping fast. Her last time out, she fell victim to the red hot Amanda Lemos. With the strawweight division being easily the most competitive in the women’s side of the UFC, Souza needs to do whatever she can to not be forgotten and to make sure people remember her dominant potential.

Markos is another fighter who is struggling mightily and is likely in danger of being cut from the promotion if she loses this one. Markos has lost each of her last four fights, with her most recent one coming by disqualification because of a blatantly illegal upkick to strawweight prospect Luana Pinheiro. Pinheiro was dominating Markos up to that point and was on her way to a win regardless. Markos’ dismal record does not tell the whole story, however. Four of her last five losses have come against fighters ranked in the Cage Calculus strawweight top 15 (Mackenzie Dern, Amanda Ribas, Kanako Murata, and Claudia Gadelha). It is possible this stretch is just due to a brutal schedule. It won’t get any easier against the #8 contender Souza.

The forecast sees Souza righting the ship and Markos continuing her slide. Souza is the forecast’s biggest favorite of the night by far.

CC Projection: Livinha Souza (77.1%)

Jeff Molina vs. Daniel Lacerda (Men’s Flyweight)

Jeff Molina

• CC Rating: 1565.0
• Division Ranking: 21st out of 30 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 389th out of 499 men

Daniel Lacerda

• CC Rating: 1620.0
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 30 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 272nd out of 499 men

Molina may only have a 9-2 record in his professional career. But, when you consider he started that career 1-2, it starts to feel more impressive. His current eight-fight win streak includes his UFC debut in his most recent fight at UFC 261. That fight was an absolute slugfest with fellow flyweight, Aori Qileng. That fight earned him fight of the night honors. On a card that featured some of the best fights of the year, that is quite the honor. Molina will try to continue his hot streak and back up his performance by dispatching a UFC newcomer.

Lacerda (also known as Daniel Da Silva) is a former flyweight champion of Mr. Cage, a Brazil based promotion. He also is a former title challenger in the Shooto promotion. Having reached the upper echelons of different promotions previously, he now gets a chance to do the same in the biggest in the world. Given how thin the flyweight divison is, it may not take much to put himself into the upper echelons. Given his past record of success, the Cage Calculus model suggests he should already be a ranked contender. He’ll need a win to stay there, however.

The forecast projects Lacerda solidifies his spot in the top 15 with a win in his debut.

CC Projection: Daniel Lacerda (57.8%)

Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert (Men’s Lightweight)

Khama Worthy

• CC Rating:1561.8
• Division Ranking: 71st out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 397th out of 499 men

Jai Herbert

• CC Rating: 1535.9
• Division Ranking: 77th out of 85 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 440th out of 499 men

It took until just before his 33rd birthday for Worthy (pictured above) to finally break into the UFC. Once he did, at UFC 241, he did so in style. He earned a performance of the night bonus for his first round KO of Devonte Smith. He followed that up with a third round submission of Luis Pena in June of last year. That’s where the magic ended, however. Worthy has been finished inside the first two minutes in each of his two most recent bouts. According to the Cage Calculus forecast, Worthy has been dealt a bit of a raw hand. He’s been the underdog in each of his four fights. With a 2-2 record, this might be his opportunity to prove what was his real self and what was aberration.

Herbert is still searching for his first UFC win. He has faced two grizzled vets in Francisco Trinaldo and Renato Moicano in his two matches. Like Worthy, Herbert has been an underdog in all of his UFC appearances thus far. Herbert has been a steeper underdog in both of his fights as well. Prior to that, Herbert rode an impressive 10-1 record into his debut. He’ll face a more modest opponent this time out with hopes of getting the monkey off his back.

The forecast projects a close fight between two fighters who’ve yet to go the distance in the UFC. However, Worthy comes in as the favorite for the first time.

CC Projection: Khama Worthy (53.7%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com