The preliminary fight card for UFC Vegas 40 features a six fight card. The card features Lupita Godinez (pictured above) fighting for the second week in a row. It will also see one of Cage Calculus’ ranked fighters, Ramazen Emeev, step into the octagon once again. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

Ariane Carnelossi vs. Istela Nunes (Women’s Strawweight)

Ariane Carnelossi

• CC Rating: 1590.3
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 51st out of 121 women

Istela Nunes

• CC Rating: 1560.0
• Division Ranking: 26th out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 73rd out of 121 women

Carnelossi had the honor of being the first to fight in front of a sold-out crowd since the pandemic began. She and Liang Na kicked off the early prelim card at UFC 261. Had that card not been legendarily entertaining, Carnelossi might have earned a performance bonus for her TKO win. Carnelossi came back from a knockdown in the opening seconds to dominate Na. She also looked to be in incredible shape doing so. Carnelossi is now 1-1 in the UFC after having dropped her debut to veteran Angela Hill. She is an impressive 13-2 overall. A win or two will have her sneaking into the strawweight top 15 very soon.

Nunes will look to halt Carnelossi’s momentum in the division and score a win in her UFC debut. Nunes is 7-1 as a pro. Her only loss came to ONE Championship’s reigning strawweight champion, Angela Lee. Nunes was meant to make her debut in September of 2019. However, a failed drug test derailed that debut. Ironically, she was replaced by Carnelossi in that fight. After her suspension ended, Nunes can prove she would have been the better matchup for Hill than the woman who got her spot in the UFC two years ago.

Carnelossi’s dominant last outing is enough for the forecast to like her chances against the prospect, Nunes. Carnelossi gets the last laugh in this intriguing matchup.

CC Projection: Ariane Carnelossi (54.3%)

Brandon Davis vs. Danaa Batgerel (Men’s Bantamweight)

Brandon Davis

• CC Rating: 1578.3
• Division Ranking: 53rd out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 358th out of 496 men

Danaa Batgerel

• CC Rating: 1605.9
• Division Ranking: 42nd out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 301st out of 496 men

Davis makes his return to the UFC after a two-year stint in the regional Gulf Coast MMA. In his first run in the UFC, Davis went a disappointing 2-5 before leaving the promotion. At Gulf Coast, however, Davis proved he is better than the competition outside the UFC octagon, going 4-0 with one title win and one defense of that title. Davis was fighting some of the UFC featherweight divsion’s best competition years ago (Zabit Magomedsharipov and Giga Chikadze to name a couple). He’ll have a relatively easier assignment in his return.

Batgerel is 2-1 since joining the UFC. After losing his debut to Alateng Heili, he turned around wins against Kevin Natividad and Guido Cannetti. This should be taken with a grain of salt, however. Both Natividad and Cannetti reside in the bottom 30 of Cage Calculus’ male rankings, with Cannetti being the lowest rated fighter in the system. Davis is certainly a step up.

The forecast nevertheless believes Batgerel can handle the step up and that the ease of competition for Davis will not make a difference in this one.

CC Projection: Danaa Batgerel (54.0%)

L’udovit Klein vs. Nate Landwehr (Men’s Featherweight)

L’udovit Klein

• CC Rating: 1629.7
• Division Ranking: 33rd out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 247th out of 496 men

Nate Landwehr

• CC Rating: 1606.5
• Division Ranking: 42nd out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 298th out of 496 men

Klein is an impressive 17-3 as a professional fighter, with a 1-1 record inside the UFC. Oddly enough, Klein was a forecast underdog in his only UFC win and a sizable favorite in his only UFC defeat. It might be hard to get a good read on where he belongs in the rankings based on his two outings thus far. This third fight should provide a better glimpse.

Landwehr’s career is as confusing as his opponent’s, if not more so. In his first outing, he was a prohibitive favorite (66.1%) against Herbert Burns. He managed to get knocked out in the first round. The forecast adjusted and made him a 61% underdog against veteran Darren Elkins. He scrapped out a decision win. Then, once again a favorite (58.6%) against Julian Erosa his last time out, he was once again knocked out in round 1.

In a matchup of men with bizarre histories, the forecast believes Klein has the better chance of recalibrating. However, if past is prologue, anything can happen with these two.

CC Projection: L’udovit Klein (53.3%)

Lupita Godinez vs. Luana Carolina (Women’s Flyweight)

Lupita Godinez

• CC Rating: 1575.8
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 45 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 60th out of 121 women

Luana Carolina

• CC Rating: 1538.7
• Division Ranking: 35th out of 44 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 90th out of 121 women

Godinez takes this fight on very short notice after Sijara Eubanks had to pull out due to COVID protocols. With a win, Godinez would become the first fighter (men or women) in UFC history to win two fights in the span of a week. She would break Khamzat Chimaev’s record of two wins in 10 days. She’s coming off a first round submission win against newcomer Silvana Gomez Juarez. Godinez’s UFC run has been anything but ordinary. She took her debut fight on short notice against Jessica Penne. She then faced Juarez, who took the fight on short notice. Now Godinez turns herself around in one week, moves up a weight division, and takes another short notice fight. If we know one thing, it’s that Godinez is always game.

Carolina is coming off a split decision victory win over Poliana Botelho. She did miss weight badly prior to that contest. Nevertheless, it brought her record to 2-1 in the UFC. Her loss was a gruesome one, with a kneebar submission at the hands of Ariane Lipski, a submission that became a Submission of the Year contender. Carolina will try to stifle the momentum of Godinez and hopes to score an easy win against a fighter coming up a weight class on very short notice.

If the forecast knew Godinez was fighting on short notice, things might read differently. However, as it is, it sees Godinez as the better overall fighter, all else being equal. We’ll see if the short notice nature is cancelled out by the fact that Godinez is literally coming right off a fight. It’s not like she’s been sitting on her hands.

CC Projection: Lupita Godinez (55.3%)

Danny Roberts vs. Ramazan Emeev (Men’s Welterweight)

Danny Roberts

• CC Rating: 1611.6
• Division Ranking: 49th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 285th out of 496 men

Ramazan Emeev

• CC Rating: 1760.8
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 65th out of 496 men

The veteran Roberts carries a relatively mixed 6-4 record for his UFC career. It has been almost two years since he last fought, with three cancellations coming in the interim (two against Nicolas Dalby and one from Tim Means). He was a small favorite his last time out against Zelim Imadaev. At 34, if he’s ever going to make a run at the rankings, now would be the time to start, six years into his UFC career.

Emeev would certainly be the fighter to do it against. He is one of the fighters Cage Calculus sees as very underrated. He already sits inside CC’s top 15 welterweight rankings (unranked by the UFC). He is a former M-1 Global Middleweight champion, having won six title fights in that promotion. He is also 5-1 inside the UFC. If there is one knock on Emeev it’s that he has not scored a finish in his time in the UFC and his competition since coming has not been much to write home about.

Regardless, Emeev is a steep favorite to continue to prove to the world he’s worthy of a number next to his name.

CC Projection: Ramazan Emeev (70.2%)

Andrew Sanchez vs. Bruno Silva (Men’s Middleweight)

Andrew Sanchez

• CC Rating: 1602.3
• Division Ranking: 40th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 309th out of 496 men

Bruno Silva

• CC Rating: 1608.2
• Division Ranking: 39th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 295th out of 496 men

Representing Team Claudia (Gadelha) on The Ultimate Fighter Season 23, Sanchez won the season’s light heavyweight tournament, earning a UFC contract. Immediately after, he moved back down to middleweight. He’s been a mixed 5-4 in his five-year UFC career. Three of those four losses came against top tier competition: Anthony Smith, Marvin Vettori, and Makhmud Muradov. The veteran faces relatively new blood this time out.

Silva is coming off an impressive win in his UFC debut. He managed a first round knockout of Wellington Turman. Silva was the slightest of underdogs going in, though it was close to a coin flip. He looks to continue that momentum against another man who knocked out Turman in round one (Sanchez did it 27 seconds faster than Silva).

Both men sit in the middle of the middleweight rankings. The model tips the younger man to continue his climb, but ever so slightly.

CC Projection: Bruno Silva (50.8%)

Photo Credit: MMA Weekly