The main fight card for UFC Vegas 40 features a five fight card. The card will see a couple of longtime UFC veterans, Andrei Arlovski and Jim Miller, step into the octagon once more. It is headlined by a women’s featherweight fight between rising prospect Norma Dumont and Aspen Ladd, who is returning after a long layoff due to a knee injury. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

You can view the forecasts for the prelim card here.

Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright (Men’s Middleweight)

Julian Marquez

• CC Rating: 1626.7
• Division Ranking: 32nd out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 257th out of 497 men

Jordan Wright

• CC Rating: 1614.9
• Division Ranking: 36th out of 65 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 278th out of 497 men

This matchup might fly under most people’s radar, but Marquez is always potential for an exciting fight. In his four-fight UFC career, Marquez is 3-1, earning bonuses in each of his three wins. The fourth was a narrow split decision loss to the Italian, Alessio di Chirico. However, a couple of those wins have not aged well. Marquez’s most recent victim, Sam Alvey, is 0-6-1 in his last seven fights in the UFC (leading many to rightly wonder how he’s able to stick around). Likewise, Darren Stewart is coming off of a three-fight losing streak that led to him being cut from the UFC. If Marquez puts on the fireworks again, he can prove some skeptics wrong.

Wright is 12-1 as a professional, with his only blemish coming against the always dangerous Joaquin Buckley. Keeping with the theme of exciting fighters to watch, none of Wright’s three UFC appearances have lasted longer than six minutes. In fact, in those three fights, Wright has only been in the octagon for seven minutes and 53 seconds total. We could be in store for another quick finish Saturday.

By a slim margin, the forecast likes Marquez’s resume better than Wright’s.

CC Projection: Julian Marquez (51.7%)

Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (Women’s Flyweight)

Manon Fiorot

• CC Rating: 1591.3
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 44 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 50th out of 121 women

Mayra Bueno Silva

• CC Rating: 1607.3
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 44 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 38th out of 121 women

Many expect Fiorot to take the UFC world by storm very soon. The French native is 7-1 in her professional career, with her only loss coming in her professional debut back in June of 2018. She has not been defeated since. She has scored two second round knockouts in two UFC fights against Tabatha Ricci and Victoria Leonardo. She is inching closer to the rankings and shows no signs of slowing down. A win would likely put her into the Cage Calculus flyweight top 15 and would go a long way towards cracking the UFC’s top 15 as well.

Bueno Silva is an underrated quantity in the flyweight division. She currently sits as the #12 ranked contender in the rankings. However, the UFC has her outside the top 15 and Vegas oddsmakers have Fiorot as a nearly 2-to-1 favorite. Bueno Silva has had an impressive career in her own right. She debuted by submitting Gillian Robertson, the all-time UFC women’s leader in submission wins. After losing a Fight of the Night contest to Maryna Moroz, Bueno Silva scored another first round submission against Mara Romero Borella. Her last outing was a draw against CC’s #7 ranked flyweight contender, Montana De La Rosa. It was a fight Bueno Silva would have won had she not been deducted a point for a fence grab.

The forecast believes Bueno Silva doesn’t get near enough credit and is the favorite to pull off the upset of the surging Fiorot.

CC Projection: Mayra Bueno Silva (52.3%)

Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez (Men’s Lightweight)

Jim Miller

• CC Rating: 1668.9
• Division Ranking: 29th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 178th out of 497 men

Erick Gonzalez

• CC Rating: 1540.0
• Division Ranking: 75th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 430th out of 497 men

A UFC legend, this will be Miller’s 37th fight in the UFC (38th if you count the No Contest against Pat Healy at UFC 159). That is just one of the records that Miller can boast over the course of his career. He is also the record holder for most wins in UFC lightweight history. He is third all-time in submission wins with 10, behind only Demian Maia and reigning lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. Father Time may be catching up to Miller, as he’s lost each of his last two bouts. There is no denying that if this is it for him, he will go down as one of the best to ever do it and he is an exciting watch regardless.

On the opposite side of the octagon, Miller will face a UFC newcomer in Gonzalez. Gonzalez comes in boasting a 14-5 record. He came one win shy of winning the Combate 53 lightweight tournament in December. However, he impressed the bosses at the UFC enough to earn a shot against an opponent like Miller. Of his 14 wins, nine have come by way of finish. Two of his five losses were by submission. That’s something to be aware of facing off against a jiu jitsu artist like Miller.

Given the wealth of knowledge about Miller and the relatively little about Gonzalez, the forecast makes the veteran a heavy favorite.

CC Projection: Jim Miller (67.7%)

Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe (Men’s Heavyweight)

Andrei Arlovski

• CC Rating: 1659.3
• Division Ranking: 18th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 200th out of 497 men

Carlos Felipe

• CC Rating: 1617.3
• Division Ranking: 24th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 274th out of 497 men

Arlovski is the UFC’s longest tenured fighter, having made his debut at UFC 28 on November 17, 2000. Arlovski held the heavyweight belt from April 2005 to June of 2006. You’d think after all this time that Arlovski might finally start slowing down, but he has won three of his last four fights. Barring some crazy turn of events, he’ll never challenge for his old belt again, but Arlovski is still competitive in this weight class. Another win or two and the UFC might have to consider putting him in the rankings. A win tonight would get him close if not into the Cage Calculus top 15. Arlovski is proof that age is just a number.

With the exception of his UFC debut against Sergey Spivak, Felipe has not lost in his professional MMA career. He will come into this bout 16 years younger than his opponent, Arlovski. Felipe has not yet been a part of a finish in his four-fight UFC career. Of his three wins, two have come via split decision. Outsiders might view a win Saturday as him beating an older man at the end of his career, but Arlovski is by far the highest rated opponent Felipe has faced.

The forecast sees the former champion continuing his hot run and defying the sands of time once again.

CC Projection: Andrei Arlovski (56.0%)

Norma Dumont vs. Aspen Ladd (Women’s Featherweight)

Norma Dumont

• CC Rating: 1554.6
• Division Ranking: 5th out of 7 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 77th out of 121 women

Aspen Ladd

• CC Rating: 1641.7
• Division Ranking: 3rd out of 7 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 28th out of 121 women

The women’s featherweight division is awfully blurry underneath the reign of double champion, Amanda Nunes. Dumont, having just beaten former title challenger Felicia Spencer, is stepping up to make the case that she ought to be next. In the unofficial round robin between Dumont and the two most recent featherweight title challengers, Spencer and Megan Anderson, each fighter came out 1-1. Dumont briefly tried a foray down to bantamweight, but issues with the extra ten pound weight cut have kept her in the thin featherweight division for the time being. It may end up working out for the best. With the exception of getting clipped by Anderson, Dumont has looked very good inside the octagon. With any justice, her split decision win over Spencer should have been unanimous. This will be a significant step up in competition for Dumont with the champion Nunes lurking over the horizon.

Given the very thin nature of this division, it’s starting to attract outsiders looking for a shot at Nunes and UFC gold. Dumont was originally slated to face off against former bantamweight champion Holly Holm. However, an injury to Holm forced her to withdraw. In stepped Aspen Ladd. Ladd, a bantamweight, has shared Dumont’s struggles in making 135 lbs. She will make her return after almost two years away due to an ACL tear. She will look to continue the dominance she displayed in her third round knockout of Yana Kunitskaya in her last fight. In the pre-fight press conference, Ladd was unsure whether she’d stay at featherweight. With Nunes still at the top and the potential for PFL champion Kayla Harrison to come to the UFC, this overlooked division could get exciting very quickly, especially if bantamweight stars like Ladd and Holm stick around.

The forecast sees Ladd as the significantly better fighter in this match. Dumont has been unlucky with fight cancellations and one judge going against her in a fight she clearly won. So, this fight may be closer than the forecast suggests, especially given that Dumont will have the likely size advantage. That said, Ladd’s talent is undeniable if she is indeed fully recovered from her knee injury. She comes in as the forecast favorite. What happens then is anyone’s guess in this unorthodox weight class.

CC Projection: Aspen Ladd (62.3%)

Photo Credit: ESPN