What We Learned from UFC Fight Night (Dern vs. Rodriguez)

This relatively low key nine-fight card was not without its lessons. The main event certainly threw a massive wrench into the women’s strawweight title picture. It may have also revealed a number of other future title contenders.

The Cage Calculus favorites from last week’s forecast went 7-2 over the nine fights, with Silvana Gomez Juarez and Sabina Mazo each losing their respective fights by submission. You can look back at the projections the forecast made for these fights here and here. Without further ado, here’s what we learned at UFC Vegas 39.

Marina Rodriguez Deserves a Title Shot [But Won’t Get it Yet]

When betting closed, Rodriguez came into UFC Vegas 39 as a nearly 2-to-1 underdog according to the oddsmakers (while Cage Calculus had her as a 50.3% favorite). She went in there and was able to thoroughly outclass fellow top 10 contender, Mackenzie Dern. With the exception of the second round, Rodriguez dominated the fight, being able to keep Dern at distance and display superior striking. Even while on the ground, Rodriguez avoided being submitted by one of the best jiu jitsu artists in the sport today.

With the win, Rodriguez became the UFC’s #4 ranked strawweight contender. In the Cage Calculus rankings, she sits as the #3 contender, behind only former champs, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Zhang Weili, as well as the current belt holder, Rose Namajunas. Given that Zhang and Namajunas are set for a rematch at UFC 268 in November and that Jedrzejczyk has fought both already and lost, it would seem Rodriguez is naturally the next in line. However, by all indications, Carla Esparza will get the winner of Namajunas-Zhang. Esparza is on a five fight win streak (one of which came over Rodriguez). However, three of those came by decisions that were not unanimous, so the Cage Calculus rankings have Esparza still as only the #5 contender.

Rodriguez has, in the past, called out Jedrzejczyk, with both being highly talented strikers. That matchup makes a lot of sense for both women. A win would instantly vault either of them into next-in-line status. That fight would be razor close going in, as the forecast currently projects Jedrzejczyk would only be a 50.1% favorite in such a hypothetical matchup. So, while Rodriguez has earned a title shot, given that the UFC tea leaves say differently, a fight with the former champion Jedrzejczyk makes a lot of sense.

We Should Keep an Eye on Matheus Nicolau

Nicolau defeated former title challenger Tim Elliott by unanimous decision, with two rounds going decisively his way, and one going to Elliott. The win put Nicolau into the #8 contender slot in the flyweight division. With champion Brandon Moreno and former champion Deiveson Figueiredo set to complete a trilogy, the division is hurting for new blood at the top. This is especially true given heir apparent Askar Askarov is unavailable due to injury.

There’s a reason, though, that we say to keep an eye on Nicolau as opposed to putting him in the title conversation just yet. Nicolau didn’t dominate Elliott, who was not even ranked in the Cage Calculus top 15 coming in. It is a good win against an opponent who’s been around, but it’s not a statement victory. He’s earned the right to face someone ahead of him (if Alex Perez’s fight with Matt Schnell doesn’t come together, he’d be a good fit).

Mariya Agapova is Coming

Agapova has now earned Performance of the Night bonuses in both of her two UFC wins. This one coming against Sabina Mazo, who was Cage Calculus’ #14 ranked flyweight contender coming in. Agapova dominated in the striking department against a fighter in Mazo who had a definitive reach advantage. She then jumped on a submission that viewers who turned away briefly would have missed. It was a thoroughly impressive performance all around.

Agapova still sits a bit outside of Cage Calculus’ top 15 (and outside of the UFC rankings as well). This is because of her stunning upset loss to Shana Dobson. Now that she’s back to form, she’s earned another high caliber matchup. She called out Ukrainian flyweight Maryna Moroz, who now occupies the #14 slot that Mazo vacated. This would be a good matchup for both fighters, and the division. Given the personal history between the two, the fight would be all the more compelling.

Alexander Romanov Needs Someone With a Number

Romanov continued his unbeaten streak, improving to 15-0 as a professional (4-0 in the UFC). However, he hasn’t fought any high caliber opponents as of yet. Cage Calculus’ forecast had him as a decent favorite in each of his four UFC matchups. Given he’s scored three knockouts in four fights in the UFC, it might be time to see what the Moldovan has got. His next matchup should be someone with a number next to their name in the rankings. Given the UFC’s rankings and Cage Calculus’ standings at the moment, Sergei Pavlovich makes sense on both ends.

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