The UFC Vegas 39 prelim card features five fights across five different weight classes. The card features the UFC debut of strawweight prospect Silvana Gomez Juarez, filling in to replace Sam Hughes. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

Steve Garcia vs. Charlie Ontiveros (Men’s Lightweight)

Steve Garcia

• CC Rating: 1530.1
• Division Ranking: 77th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 445th out of 497 men

Charlie Ontiveros

• CC Rating: 1473.0
• Division Ranking: 84th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 491st out of 497 men

Over a year-and-a-half after his UFC debut, Garcia returns to the octagon. Garcia lost an unremarkable unanimous decision to Luis Pena. Garcia is still getting used to the lightweight division. His UFC debut marked his first ever fight at 155 lbs, having previously fought 20 lbs lighter at bantamweight. Eight of Garcia’s 11 professional wins have come by way of finish. He’ll look to get a ninth to secure his first UFC win.

Ontiveros holds the dubious distinction of being Cage Calculus’ lowest rated lightweight fighter. However, he, like his opponent, is new to the division. However, Ontiveros is coming from the opposite direction. He used to be a middleweight and is now fighting a remarkable 30 lbs lighter than normal for this bout. Ontiveros suffered a defeat to Kevin Holland in his UFC debut last year. His pre-UFC record was a very mixed 10-6.

The model, ever bearish on Ontiveros, has Garcia as a steady favorite in the night’s opener.

CC Projection: Steve Garcia (58.1%)

Lupita Godinez vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez (Women’s Strawweight)

Lupita Godinez

• CC Rating: 1533.3
• Division Ranking: 34th out of 44 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 95th out of 120 women

Silvana Gomez Juarez

• CC Rating: 1580.0
• Division Ranking: 21st out of 44 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 58th out of 120 women

Godinez’s UFC debut was spoiled by the return of Jessica Penne. Godinez was on the wrong end of a split decision in that bout. The loss to Penne was the first of her pro MMA career. She was originally slated to face off against Sam Hughes, another strawweight looking for her first UFC win. Godinez and Hughes had fought as amateurs, with Godinez winning a unanimous decision. However, Hughes had to pull out due to injury.

Hughes will be replaced with UFC newcomer Silvana Gomez Juarez. The UFC clearly thinks highly of this prospect. Juarez was scheduled to face Antonina Shevchenko on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018. However, the bout never materialized and Juarez would have to wait for her shot at the UFC. Juarez strung together a 10-2 record in other promotions, with each of the two losses coming in title bouts. Both came against current UFC fighters, Ariane Lipski and Poliana Botelho.

Juarez’s championship experience has the model rate her highly. However, her newness to the UFC and the short notice nature of the bout could work against her. The model sees Juarez as the better fighter coming in.

CC Projection: Silvana Gomez Juarez (56.7%)

Charles Rosa vs. Damon Jackson (Men’s Featherweight)

Charles Rosa

• CC Rating: 1607.5
• Division Ranking: 42nd out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 299th out of 497 men

Damon Jackson

• CC Rating: 1633.6
• Division Ranking: 31st out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 236th out of 497 men

Rosa has alternated wins and losses during his seven-year UFC career. He sits at 5-5 coming into this tilt with fellow veteran Jackson. Rosa has been the recipient of three ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses during his UFC career, though never being on the winning end of any of those fights. He may not always come out on top, but his fights are typically exciting. He has the opportunity to put together the first multi-fight win streak of his UFC career in this one.

Jackson returned to the UFC last year after a four-and-a-half year hiatus in the LFA promotion. He was able to win the interim featherweight championship there during that time. His UFC record, however, is less impressive at 1-2-1 with one No Contest. He suffered a first round knockout loss to rising Georgian star, Ilia Topuria his last time out.

While a close fight, the model remembers Jackson’s performance at LFA and believes this makes him better than his record indicates. It predicts he’s the favorite to continue Rosa’s streak of alternating wins and losses.

CC Projection: Damon Jackson (53.7%)

Alexander Romanov vs. Jared Vanderaa (Men’s Heavyweight)

Alexander Romanov

• CC Rating: 1708.3
• Division Ranking: 11th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 125th out of 497 men

Jared Vanderaa

• CC Rating: 1532.8
• Division Ranking: 34th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 444th out of 497 men

Romanov finished his last bout rather anticlimactically, as a groin strike rendered him unable to continue in the third round. The bout ended by technical split decision with Romanov coming out as the victor. It was the first time in his career he went to the judges’ scorecards. He has a dazzling 14-0 professional record, with 13 finishes. He is 3-0 inside the UFC. He’s quickly making a name for himself in the loaded heavyweight division.

Vanderaa comes in with a more mixed resume. He carries a 12-5 professional record, including 1-1 in the UFC. Having faced off against Sergey Spivak and Justin Tafa previously, Romanov is by far his toughest competition since joining the UFC. He also boasts a high finishing rate, with 10 of his 12 wins coming inside the distance. Given the two men involved, it’s unlikely this fight goes the full 15 minutes.

Romanov is projected to comfortably continue his upward ascent.

CC Projection: Alexander Romanov (73.3%)

Chris Gutierrez vs. Felipe Colares (Men’s Bantamweight)

Chris Gutierrez

• CC Rating: 1666.0
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 185th out of 497 men

Felipe Colares

• CC Rating: 1592.4
• Division Ranking: 48th out of 79 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 335th out of 497 men

Gutierrez (pictured above) has not been defeated professionally since his UFC debut in November of 2018. Since, he’s gone 4-0-1 with the lone draw coming against Cody Durden in August last year. He came in as the Cage Calculus favorite in four of those five bouts, with his lone upset win being against Ryan MacDonald (he had a 46.9% chance to win that bout).

Colares was a perfect 8-0 prior to joining the UFC. He’s gone 2-2 since. Surprisingly, Colares had an 87.5% finish rate before coming to the UFC, but each of his fights in the UFC have gone to the judges’ scorecards. Colares has been a favorite twice and an underdog twice in his four UFC fights (according to the Cage Calculus model). He is 1-1 with each distinction.

The model makes Colares an underdog again and see Gutierrez continuing his unbeaten streak.

CC Projection: Chris Gutierrez (60.4%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com