The UFC Vegas 39 prelim card now features five fights. After the cancellation of Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn, the previously scheduled featured prelim (Gutierrez vs. Colares) was moved to the main card. You can see the preview for that fight and the rest of the prelim card here. The card is headlined by a showdown between two of Cage Calculus’ top 10 strawweight women. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

Mariya Agapova vs. Sabina Mazo (Women’s Flyweight)

Mariya Agapova

• CC Rating: 1540.4
• Division Ranking: 33rd out of 44 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 87th out of 120 women

Sabina Mazo

• CC Rating: 1602.6
• Division Ranking: 15th out of 44 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 42nd out of 120 women

The 24 year-old Agapova has an impressive finish rate in her MMA career, with seven of her nine wins coming inside the full time. Her debut was a first round finish of Hannah Cifers (who had perhaps the roughest 2020 of any fighter in the UFC). Agapova is coming off a TKO defeat at the hands of Shana Dobson, who’s since retired. The Cage Calculus model gave Agapova a 68.9% chance of winning that fight. She has yet to face a fighter rated higher than 1480.0 in the CC ratings. That will change with this bout.

Mazo is a sneaky presence at the bottom of the flyweight rankings (coming in as the #14 contender in the CC rankings). Mazo was defeated in her last bout after going up to bantamweight to fight veteran Alexis Davis. She’ll come back to 125 lbs for this one. Her only other loss in the UFC was to fellow ranked flyweight, Maryna Moroz. Mazo will go up against fellow 24 year-old Agapova in a battle of prospects and in an effort to climb the rankings and maybe warrant a mention in the title discussion.

Mazo has proven herself against stiff competition and she is far above anyone Agapova has faced. The model sees Mazo getting back in the win column and threatening the flyweight top 10.

CC Projection: Sabina Mazo (58.9%)

Tim Elliott vs. Matheus Nicolau (Men’s Flyweight)

Tim Elliott

• CC Rating: 1579.8
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 29 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 355th out of 497 men

Matheus Nicolau

• CC Rating: 1624.4
• Division Ranking: 11th out of 29 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 260th out of 497 men

Elliott has gone 4-4 inside the UFC octagon since he challenged all-time great, Demetrious Johnson for the flyweight title in 2016. Recently, he’s not demonstrated an ability to defeat any opponents of a meaningful rating. While he’s won his last two, both fighters have been cut from the UFC since. Elliott’s resurgence has put him back in the UFC’s top 10 rankings (though he sits well outside of the Cage Calculus top 15). He can prove doubters wrong against a formidable opponent here.

Nicolau started his UFC career 3-0 before a first round KO at the hands of Dustin Ortiz sent him out of the promotion altogether for almost three years. He returned in March and got back to his winning ways by taking a split decision over the dangerous Manel Kape. Nicolau can make a statement and climb the rankings with a win over the former title challenger, Elliott.

The model knows Nicolau would be Elliott’s strongest win in a long time. Elliott doesn’t have the strength of victory needed to overcome Nicolau in the projections.

CC Projection: Matheus Nicolau (56.4%)

Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden (Men’s Welterweight)

Randy Brown

• CC Rating: 1696.6
• Division Ranking: 30th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 136th out of 497 men

Jared Gooden

• CC Rating: 1615.6
• Division Ranking: 48th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 278th out of 497 men

Brown is one of the most exciting fighters in the welterweight division. It has been almost four years since one of his fights ended in a decision. His knockout potential has had him knocking on the door of the upper echelon of the division. However, losses to marquee opponents Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad have blunted his ascent. A stunning one-armed rear naked choke against Alex Oliveira at UFC 261 have him back on everyone’s radar. It’ll take another couple of wins to get into the rankings conversation though.

Gooden finally secured his first UFC win back in July after starting 0-2, suffering defeats to the now-retired Alan Jouban and Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Khabib’s cousin). Gooden responded with an emphatic first round KO of Niklas Stoltze just over a minute in. Brown will be the highest rated of his four UFC opponents thus far. We’ll see if he progresses or slides after having defeated the much lower rated Stoltze.

The model predicts Brown will have the upper hand, with Gooden just not having proven he can beat someone of this caliber.

CC Projection: Randy Brown (61.5%)

Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern (Women’s Strawweight)

Marina Rodriguez

• CC Rating: 1689.0
• Division Ranking: 8th out of 44 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 13th out of 120 women

Mackenzie Dern

• CC Rating: 1687.2
• Division Ranking: 9th out of 44 strawweights
• Overall Ranking: 15th out of 120 women

After a draw to Cynthia Calvillo and a tight split decision defeat to Carla Esparza, the UFC thought they’d use Rodriguez as a springboard for the career of hot prospect Amanda Ribas. Rodriguez overcame the doubt with a display of superior striking, knocking out Ribas in the first minute of the second round. She then dominated Michelle Waterson over five rounds in her last fight. Now, she’s in another main event, with her name squarely in the title picture with a win.

Submission artist Dern is an impressive 6-1 in the UFC. Her only loss came to the aforementioned Ribas. She’s won three of her last four by way of first round submission. Dern’s ground game is likely the best in the entire women’s division. Her last win saw her crack the top 15 of the women’s overall rankings. She, like Rodriguez would enter the title conversation quickly with a win in this main event.

This fight is about as razor thin as they come. And, it will be stylistically fascinating to see the deadly accurate striking of Rodriguez go up against the elite jiu jitsu of Dern. This is a matchmaking masterpiece in every way. The model gives Rodriguez the slightest of edges in what promises to be a fantastic fight. The winner will more than likely become just the 19th woman in UFC history to eclipse a 1700 CC Rating.

CC Projection: Marina Rodriguez (50.3%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com