UFC Fight Night 193 features a main card of 5 bouts across 4 different weight classes in the men’s division. The card was also supposed to feature the return of Aspen Ladd to face Macy Chiasson, but the bout was cancelled after Ladd struggled to make weight and looked unwell doing so. The card is headlined by a matchup between top light heavyweight contenders Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden (Men’s Lightweight)

Alexander Hernandez

• CC Rating: 1651.9
• Division Ranking: 37th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 209th out of 500 men

Mike Breeden

• CC Rating: 1530.0
• Division Ranking: 78th out of 84 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 448th out of 500 men

Hernandez’s 4-3 record in the UFC may not dazzle casual fight fans. However, he has fought some of the best competition the promotion has to offer. His 3 losses have come to Thiago Moises, Drew Dober, and the legendary Cowboy Cerrone. Hernandez has a win under his belt against CC’s #5 lightweight contender Beneil Dariush (UFC’s #3 contender). Hernandez’s strength of schedule is unreal for someone of his stature in the UFC.

Facing him this time, however, is UFC newcomer Breeden. Breeden strung together a 9-3 record prior to joining the UFC, earning him a 1530.0 starting CC rating. All but 2 of those wins came by finish. Breeden also fought for Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020, but lost his only bout there, failing to earn a UFC contract until now. Breeden missed weight by 2.5 pounds for this contest.

Hernandez is expected to easily cruise to the win, given his experience against far more formidable opponents.

CC Projection: Alexander Hernandez (66.9%)

Misha Cirkunov vs. Krysztof Jotko (Men’s Middleweight)

Misha Cirkunov

• CC Rating: 1646.1
• Division Ranking: 26th out of 66 middlweights
• Overall Ranking: 218th out of 500 men

Krysztof Jotko

• CC Rating: 1686.2
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 155th out of 500 men

The Latvian Cirkunov is making his UFC debut at middleweight, having previously fought at light heavyweight. After starting his UFC career 4-0, Cirkunov has dropped 4 of his last 6 fights, including losses against #1 light heavyweight contender Glover Teixeira and tonight’s headliner, Johnny Walker. With the light heavyweight division getting increasingly crowded, Cirkunov will try his luck at middleweight for this one.

He comes down to face Jotko, who had his 3 fight win streak snapped by the red hot Sean Strickland (CC’s #3 middlweight contender) in his last bout. Jotko has been tantalizingly close to the top 15 for a while, but has never quite been able to make the next step. After moving his professional record up to 19-1 in an impressive defeat of Thales Leites, Jotko dropped 3 in a row before turning it around with the aforementioned 3 fight win streak. He’ll look to avoid further streakiness by getting back in the win column.

This one will be close, but the model has Jotko as the narrow favorite to spoil Cirkunov’s debut at 185 lbs.

CC Projection: Krysztof Jotko (55.7%)

Niko Price vs. Alex Oliveira (Men’s Welterweight)

Niko Price

• CC Rating: 1647.7
• Division Ranking: 43rd out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 217th out of 500 men

Alex Oliveira

• CC Rating: 1635.1
• Division Ranking: 45th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 235th out of 500 men

Price is no doubt one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC. He can deliver finish wins from anywhere. However, he’s struggled as of late. He dropped his most recent bout to the equally exciting Michel Pereira (a fight in which CC favored Price to win). He was also one of CC’s #1 welterweight contender Vicente Luque’s most recent victims. Price also had a win over Donald Cerrone nullified due to a failed drug test afterwards. It’s been almost 2 years since his last official win.

Oliveira will make his 20th UFC appearance on this card. He is 11-8 in his 19 prior appearances. He was upset in his last bout to Randy Brown by first round KO. Prior to that, he had the honor of being Shavkhat Rakhmonov’s (CC’s #12 welterweight contender) first UFC victim. It has typically taken top tier talent to off Oliveira. He is rarely upset in drastic fashion.

In a razor thin projection, the model sees Price being the one to turn around his recent string of losses. No such luck for Oliveira.

CC Projection: Niko Price (51.8%)

Kevin Holland vs. Kyle Daukaus (Men’s Middleweight)

Kevin Holland

• CC Rating: 1718.2
• Division Ranking: 14th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 112th out of 500 men

Kyle Daukaus

• CC Rating: 1616.3
• Division Ranking: 34th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 279th out of 500 men

Holland had perhaps the best 2020 out of anyone in the UFC not named Deiveson Figueiredo. Holland went 5-0, tying the UFC record for most wins in a calendar year, with 3 of those wins earning him a Performance of the Night bonus. However, 2021 has not been as kind. Holland was exposed by Derek Brunson (CC’s #2 middleweight contender) for his lack of wrestling skills. Then, taking on Marvin Vettori (CC’2 #12 middleweight contender), Holland was also dominated on the ground. He’s back to prove he’s worked on his wrestling and to resume his quest toward the top of the division.

Daukaus will look to continue his family’s winning ways after his brother Chris, scored a big win at UFC 266 and earned a headliner fight against Derrick Lewis in December. Daukaus has had an uninspired start to his UFC career, with a 1-2 record and no finishes recorded. However, Daukaus was 9-0 prior to joining the UFC, with 8 of those 9 wins coming by submission. Fighting a top talent who’s shown vulnerabilities on the ground could be just what the doctor ordered.

The model sees Holland as too talented to continue his slide and makes him the heavy favorite against Daukaus.

CC Projection: Kevin Holland (64.3%)

Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Thiago Santos

• CC Rating: 1762.4
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 43 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 64th out of 500 men

Johnny Walker

• CC Rating: 1707.9
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 43 light heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 126th out of 500 men

For a while, there were few more dominant in the light heavyweight (LHW) division than Santos (pictured above). At a time, he had won 8 out of 9, including a TKO victory against current champ, Jan Blachowicz. That earned him a matchup with #1 overall male and then-LHW champ, Jon Jones. Santos fought Jones to a split decision loss, in a fight many believed Santos won. After that, Santos was submitted by current #1 contender Glover Teixeira and then lost a snooze-fest decision to Aleksandar Rakic (CC’s #6 LHW contender). Santos needs to get back on track to have a shot at the title.

He will face fellow Brazilian Johnny Walker. Walker was one of the most hyped LHW prospects in memory. He backed it up by winning each of his first 3 UFC fights by knockout in under 2 minutes. However, his next fight saw him get TKO’d by Corey Anderson in the first round. He followed with a decision loss to Nikita Krylov. In his most recent bout, he defeating CC’s #14 LHW contender Ryan Spann by first round TKO, getting back on track. However, Walker was in danger of losing very early in the Spann fight. Santos will be his toughest challenge yet. A win could put him back on track for a title shot.

Santos remains a force to be reckoned with and the model has not seen enough from Walker to place him ahead. Santos comes in as a decent favorite.

CC Projection: Thiago Santos (57.8%)

Photo Credit: Sporting News