The preliminary fight card for UFC Vegas 38 features a seven fight card. The card features Antonina Shevchenko, fighting a week after her sister retained flyweight gold. It also holds a number of fights between up-and-comers looking to establish themselves to make an assault at the top 15. All projections are based off a fighter’s CC rating and their place in the CC rankings.

Alejandro Perez vs. Johnny Eduardo (Men’s Bantamweight)

Alejandro Perez

• CC Rating: 1604.0
• Division Ranking: 44th out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 309th out of 499 men

Johnny Eduardo

• CC Rating: 1579.6
• Division Ranking: 54th out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 357th out of 499 men

Perez started his UFC career with a 1540.0 rating. After a 7-1-1 start, he got his CC rating all the way up to 1691.3, looking like he might break into the top 15 of the dense bantamweight division. However, when the competition stepped up against Cody Stamann (rated 1697.9 at the time), Perez finally broke his hot streak with a loss. He was then upset by Song Yadong at UFC 239. His recent streak places him outside the bantamweight top 40.

Eduardo has been in the UFC now for over a decade, with his last fight coming in June of 2018. He lost to Nathaniel Wood by a second round D’Arce choke. Eduardo, for all his longevity, is only 3-4 in the UFC. He has faced top competition, with matches against Raphael Assuncao, Eddie Wineland, and current champ Aljamain Sterling. He looks to get back to .500 with this fight.

The model has Perez as a slim favorite to stop his skid and get back on track.

CC Projection: Alejandro Perez (53.5%)

Shanna Young vs. Stephanie Egger (Women’s Bantamweight)

Shanna Young

• CC Rating: 1541.7
• Division Ranking: 21st out of 29 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 84th out of 121 women

Stephanie Egger

• CC Rating: 1507.3
• Division Ranking: 25th out of 29 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 103rd out of 121 women

Young is coming off a defeat in her UFC debut to Macy Chiasson, where she lost a unanimous decision back in February. Young was an underdog in that fight, being given only a 46.7% chance of victory by the CC model. Young has also faced some UFC talent prior to joining the promotion. She faced off against Sarah Alpar and Miranda Maverick during her time in the Invicta promotion. She suffered losses by rear naked choke both times. Though not fairing well, Young has experience being in the cage against top tier opponents.

Egger is also coming off a loss in her UFC debut to Tracy Cortez. Egger also found herself an underdog, with only a 45.3% chance going into that bout. Cortez remains undefeated in the UFC to this day. Egger came into the UFC 5-1 with a significant win over Mara Romero Borella on the Italian regional circuit.

Both women are in their second UFC fight looking for their first win. The model tips Young to be the one to break through.

CC Projection: Shanna Young (54.9%)

Douglas Andrade vs. Gaetano Pirrello (Men’s Bantamweight)

Douglas Andrade

• CC Rating: 1663.2
• Division Ranking: 32nd out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 190th out of 499 men

Gaetano Pirrello

• CC Rating: 1519.0
• Division Ranking: 72nd out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 458th out of 499 men

Andrade has had a brutal schedule as of late. He suffered a defeat to future champ Petr Yan at UFC 232, before gritting out a decision win against former champ, Renan Barao almost a year later. He then dropped an upset loss to undefeated prospect Lerone Murphy.

He’ll face another prospect in Pirrello. Pirrello does not have a UFC win yet, though he was thrown into the fire in his debut, facing off against Ricky Simon (CC’s #14 bantamweight contender). Due to his lack of experience and his pedestrian 15-5-1 record prior, he sits relatively low in the rankings. He can prove a lot of people wrong by getting the monkey off his back.

The model still sees Andrade as a prohibitive favorite to keep Pirrello winless.

CC Projection: Douglas Andrade (69.6%)

Jamie Mullarkey vs. Devonte Smith (Men’s Lightweight)

Jamie Mullarkey

• CC Rating: 1640.3
• Division Ranking: 43rd out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 228th out of 499 men

Devonte Smith

• CC Rating: 1621.9
• Division Ranking: 50th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 268th out of 499 men

It took Mullarkey 3 fights to get his first UFC win, but once he did, he did it in style. He delivered a first round knockout at UFC 260 in 46 seconds. And, prior to the UFC, Mullarkey accumulated titles in three separate MMA promotions. This saw him start his UFC career off against Brad Riddell, the UFC’s #12 ranked lightweight (unranked by CC). Mullarkey is 1-2 in the UFC, having been an underdog in both his losses and a favorite in his win.

Smith presents a very tough challenge. In his 13 fight professional career, Smith has never once gone to the judges’ scorecards. He is 11-2 as a pro, including 3-1 in the UFC. Smith’s one loss in the UFC came against Khama Worthy, who happens to be Mullarkey’s only win in the UFC. This fight is likely to end in fireworks.

Despite Smith’s finishing ability, the model gives Mullarkey the slim edge due to his experience, strength of schedule, and past success.

CC Projection: Jamie Mullarkey (52.6%)

Bethe Correia vs. Karol Rosa (Women’s Bantamweight)

Bethe Correia

• CC Rating: 1531.3
• Division Ranking: 23rd out of 29 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 95th out of 121 women

Karol Rosa

• CC Rating: 1620.6
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 29 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 32nd out of 121 women

It has been a little over 6 years since a 9-0 Bethe Correia challenged then-champion Ronda Rousey for the bantamweight title. Rousey finished Correia with a flurry of punches in only 34 seconds. Since then, Correia has fallen off, going 2-4-1 in the UFC since. The one bright spot was her impressive victory over Sijara Eubanks in September 2019. She’ll likely need another bright spot here or risk being cut from the UFC roster.

On the other hand, it has been over three years since Rosa suffered a loss as a professional mixed martial artist. A 3-0 start in the UFC has vaulted her to the #9 contender slot in the CC bantamweight rankings (#15 in the official UFC rankings). She now gets the opportunity to bolster her position in the division by taking on one of its former stars.

The model convincingly gives Rosa the nod to continue her undefeated UFC run in this bout and Correia continues her slide.

CC Projection: Karol Rosa (62.6%)

Antonina Shevchenko vs. Casey O’Neill (Women’s Flyweight)

Antonina Shevchenko

• CC Rating: 1579.4
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 58th out of 121 women

Casey O’Neill

• CC Rating: 1615.1
• Division Ranking: 10th out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 35th out of 121 women

Shevchenko looks to turn things around in this unforgiving flyweight division. She’s lost two out of her last three, with the losses coming against Katlyn Chookagian and Andrea Lee (CC’s #2 and #8 ranked flyweight contenders respectively). These losses saw her fall out of the flyweight top 15. They also saw her dip below the CC women’s average (1585.5). She will look to avoid stringing together a second straight loss.

O’Neill, on the other hand, is a rising star in the flyweight division. She is 2-0 in the UFC, with both wins being by finish, and 7-0 overall as a professional. Shevchenko will be another tough challenge, being rated about as highly as Lara Procopio, O’Neill’s most recent opponent. She’s busted through to be the #9 flyweight contender in the CC rankings and a win against Shevchenko could get her into the UFC’s official top 15.

The model favors O’Neill to continue her dominant run and move up the leaderboard.

CC Projection: Casey O’Neill (55.1%)

Joe Solecki vs. Jared Gordon (Men’s Lightweight)

Joe Solecki

• CC Rating: 1649.9
• Division Ranking: 38th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 212th out of 499 men

Jared Gordon

• CC Rating: 1665.0
• Division Ranking: 29th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 184th out of 499 men

Solecki, the 28 year-old New Jersey native is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC. His most recent win was his most impressive, coming against legend Jim Miller, one of the UFC’s all-time leaders in finish victories. In his 3 UFC fights, Solecki has come in as the CC underdog in all three, prevailing against the odds each time. He also scored a first round KO of Austin Hubbard.

Gordon (pictured above) is 3-1 in his last 4 fights in the UFC. The loss? It came at the hands of current champ Charles Oliveira. This bout sees him moving back to lightweight after a brief stint at featherweight. In his last bout, Gordon missed weight by 4 whole pounds, precipitating the move back up to lightweight. We will see if that has an effect on him, but Gordon has been impressive lately.

The CC model makes Solecki an underdog for the fourth straight time. We will see if he can defy it once again to continue his climb.

CC Projection: Jared Gordon (52.2%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com