On December 8, 2018, Valentina Shevchenko won the vacant women’s flyweight belt via unanimous decision over former women’s strawweight champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Shevchenko has not relinquished the belt since, putting together six consecutive title defenses. Since coming down from bantamweight to fight for the flyweight belt, Shevchenko has only surrendered two rounds (one to Jedrzejczyk and one to Jennifer Maia). This run of dominance has the MMA world asking if there’s anything that can be done to give Shevchenko a competitive title at flyweight.

Saturday night’s fight at UFC 266 against Lauren Murphy proved more of the same. Shevchenko dominated Murphy in every facet until finally referee Keith Peterson called a stop to it in the fourth round. With the victory over Murphy, Shevchenko has now soundly defeated 4 of CC’s top 5 female flyweight contenders and each of the top 4 in the official UFC Rankings. The UFC matchmakers are going to either have to get creative or digging deeper into the flyweight barrel to find someone who can challenge for the belt.

Here’s a look at some of the top names the CageCalculus model suggests should be next in line for the belt:

Taila Santos

According to the CC flyweight rankings, Santos is the #2 flyweight contender behind the champion Shevchenko and #1 contender, Jessica Andrade. This makes Santos the highest rated fighter by CC’s model that has not yet been defeated by Shevchenko. Santos also fought at UFC 266, notching a dominant decision victory over UFC veteran, Roxanne Modafferi.

The Case For Santos: Santos has an impressive 18-1 record as an MMA pro. She is on a three fight win streak that includes an impressive victory over Gillian Robertson. Robertson, not Shevchenko, owns the most stoppage wins in UFC women’s flyweight history, most by decision. Santos outgrappled Robertson throughout the fight, earning a clear and convincing win. The talent is there.

The Case Against Santos: The bulk of Santos’ high CC rating comes from her perfect 15-0 record prior to joining the UFC. While her recent three fight win streak within the UFC has been impressive, none of those three wins have come against an opponent ranked in CC’s top 15 female flyweights. It would be a large leap to go from Modafferi straight to Shevchenko. Her UFC trajectory is also colored by her debut loss to Mara Romero Borella, a fighter who then proceeded to go on a 4 fight losing streak and get cut by the UFC. Maybe Santos needs to notch a couple marquee wins before setting her sights on the champ.

Cynthia Calvillo

Calvillo is one of the next highest fighter in the CC rankings who has yet to face Shevchenko, sitting at #9 in the CC rankings and #5 in the official UFC rankings. Another flyweight who competed at UFC 266, Calvillo lost by first round stoppage at the hands of aforementioned #1 contender Andrade.

The Case for Calvillo: As mentioned before, Calvillo is a high rated contender in the flyweight division who has never faced Shevchenko before. In the official UFC rankings, she is the highest ranked with that distinction. It has been a while since Calvillo has faced an opponent not considered elite, with her last two fights being against Andrade and CC’s #3 contender, Katlyn Chookagian. She has experience with the cream of the crop.

The Case Against Calvillo: The aforementioned fights against Chookagian and Andrade were both defeats. Calvillo has only fought three times in the flyweight division after moving up from strawweight. She is 1-2 with the only win coming against Jessica Eye, who has since fallen out of the CC top 15 due to a losing streak of her own. It does not take much to earn a title shot in this division now that Shevchenko is clearing out the upper echelon, but it is hard to justify a title shot on a 2 fight losing streak.

Joanne Calderwood

Calderwood had a title shot locked up until an injury to Shevchenko postponed the bout. Calderwood decided to fight anyway and matched up against Jennifer Maia. Less than a round later, Maia had submitted Calderwood and her title hopes were dashed. After scoring a win against Jessica Eye, Calderwood found herself in another title eliminator match against Shevchenko’s most recent opponent, Lauren Murphy. Calderwood lost a razor thin split decision and watched Murphy get the title shot instead.

The Case for Calderwood: One could say she’s owed this title fight since she took the risk against Maia where she could have sat it out and waited for Shevchenko. You could also be forgiven for thinking Calderwood actually won her bout against Murphy. It was that close. Calderwood is scheduled against #10 ranked contender (by both CC and the UFC) Alexa Grasso in November. A win could prove she’s the best to have never faced Shevchenko yet.

The Case Against Calderwood: Calderwood is 7-6 inside the UFC. She’s never stood out in this division. She’s lost to Chookagian, Maia, and Murphy, all women who were dominated by Shevchenko. Thinking Calderwood could offer anything the three of them weren’t able to is likely foolish.

A Repeat Matchup

Andrade and Chookagian have proved since their respective defeats that they are the top 2 fighters in the division aside from the champion. Andrade delivered a first round KO of Cynthia Calvillo, while Chookagian also knocked off Calvillo and Viviane Araujo. They’ve been able to take all comers that aren’t each other (Andrade defeated Chookagian in their one matchup) or Shevchenko. Meanwhile, Jennifer Maia scored a win since her defeat as well.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has seemingly been boxed out of the strawweight title picture. With the current champ, Rose Namajunas having defeated Jedrzejczyk twice in the past, it’s hard to justify a trilogy. Zhang Weili has already earned a rematch, and inaugural champ Carla Esparza likely awaits the winner. Jedrzejczyk is one of two women who have managed to win a round against Shevchenko. Perhaps it’s time to abandon the division she reigned over for years and take another crack at Shevchenko, perhaps a little wiser this time.

The Case for a Repeat Matchup: Trying new blood just hasn’t worked out. It has forced the UFC to go deeper into the rankings to find new opponents and Shevchenko becomes a more prohibitive favorite every time (with the exception of the Andrade fight, where the probabilities narrowed). Shevchenko has fought a new opponent each time. We don’t know how she’ll perform against someone who’s been in the cage with her and has learned about her style. Shevchenko has only fought a repeat opponent twice in her career. She is 1-1 in such bouts. Perhaps it’s time to go back to the well to see if one of her past victims can learn from the past.

The Case Against a Repeat Matchup: None of the fights between the three aforementioned names were particularly close. It may not be a matter of making a few minor tweaks. Jedrzejczyk was at a significant size disadvantage and has been inactive for over a year-and-a-half. Chookagian has not displayed any significant improvements to suggest she can handle Shevchenko. Maia’s post-Shevchenko win came against Jessica Eye, who is riding a three fight losing streak. Andrade, meanwhile, proves to be the best prospect of the bunch to get another shot. But, it may be too soon since their fight was so recently. Also, it seems she wants to return to strawweight, having called out the winner of Namajunas-Zhang 2 in her post-fight press conference at UFC 266.

The Field

The UFC does have a deep bench of solid flyweight contenders. However, we need to be talking about more than solid to be in the same conversation as Valentina Shevchenko. Here’s a brief look at some of the potential wild cards in the flyweight division.

Alexa Grasso: Grasso will get her shot at the aforementioned Calderwood on November 20. We mentioned Calderwood as a potential contender. If Grasso wins, that’ll improve her record to 3-0 since joining the flyweight division. Grasso previously beat the up-and-coming Maycee Barber showing impressive striking. The drawback would be that Grasso would be at a significant size disadvantage being a former strawweight and Shevchenko being a former bantamweight.

Montana De La Rosa: De La Rosa sits at #7 in the CC flyweight rankings (#15 in the official UFC rankings). The CC model is impressed with her finishing ability and her strength of schedule. Her UFC record (5-2-1) is not much to write home about, but in this division you have to grade on a curve. She’s slated to face off against Maycee Barber in a good matchup of prospects at flyweight at UFC 269 in December. A win there poises her to journey upward toward gold. De La Rosa is also a converted strawweight.

Maycee Barber: Barber stormed into the UFC with an undefeated 5-0 record. She scored quick finishes in each of her first three fights. A torn ACL in her next fight against Roxanne Modafferi derailed her fast track to UFC gold. Barber returned from injury with a loss to Grasso before righting the ship with a win against Miranda Maverick. When healthy, Barber is as talented as anyone in this division, but rushing her development and recovery could do damage to her career. She now sits as CC’s #11 contender (UFC’s #13). A win against De La Rosa in December could begin that acceleration.

Andrea Lee: Lee recently ended a 3 fight losing streak with an impressive second round submission of Shevchenko’s sister, Antonina. It would be a compelling storyline to have the champ avenge her sister’s defeat against Lee. Prior to her losing streak, Lee was winner of 7 straight. She is ranked #8 in the CC rankings (#12 by the UFC). The losing streak does present a bit of a resume problem. It’s likely Lee will need at least one or two substantial wins to get the UFC matchmakers’ attention.

Miranda Maverick: Maverick stormed into the UFC with a vicious first round knockout of Liana Jojua. She then dominated Gillian Robertson to a unanimous decision win. Then came the aforementioned defeat to Barber. However, if the world was a just place and fair place, that would have been a unanimous decision win for Maverick. All 22 media outlets scoring the fight scored it for Maverick. Unfortunately, 2 of the 3 judges cage side weren’t watching what everyone else was. As a result, Maverick sits just outside of the CC rankings, while being #14 in the official UFC rankings (one of the few benefits of using subjective rankings as opposed to objective ones). In said fair and just world, Maverick would be 3-0 in the UFC and higher in the rankings. Maverick is relatively new, but does have impressive size and strength for this division.

Photo Credit: UFC