The UFC 266 pay-per-view card features five fights culminating in title bouts in both the women’s flyweight division and the men’s featherweight division. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo (Women’s Flyweight)

Jessica Andrade

• CC Rating: 1721.2
• Division Ranking: 2nd out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 5th out of 121 women

Cynthia Calvillo

• CC Rating: 1647.4
• Division Ranking: 7th out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 23rd out of 121 women

Andrade will look to bounce back after her defeat to division champion, Valentina Shevchenko in her last bout. Andrade was a healthy 62% underdog in that fight. Prior to that, in her flyweight debut, Andrade scored a first round finish against the previous #1 contender, Katlyn Chookagian, a fight where Andrade was a slim 53.3% favorite. Andrade will look to cement her status as the current #1 contender and get back into the title picture as soon as possible with a win.

Calvillo is 1-1 since moving up to the flyweight division. She soundly defeated Jessica Eye in her debut as a 57.2% favorite. However, her most recent bout saw her fall to the aforementioned Chookagian. Calvillo may be CC’s #6 flyweight contender (and the UFC’s #5 contender), but a title shot might not be far out of reach with a win here. Everyone ahead of her in the UFC rankings has already been matched up with Shevchenko (with Lauren Murphy’s shot coming later on this card). If she can score a win, she’ll have a strong case to be the next one up.

Andrade has been one of the most consistent forces in the UFC women’s division since she came in. She has lost 4 fights in the last 5 years against four of the top 6 women in CC’s overall female rankings (as well as the UFC’s own pound-for-pound rankings). It takes a lot to beat Jessica Andrade and the forecast does not see Calvillo coming up with it. Andrade is a significant favorite in this one.

CC Projection: Jessica Andrade (60.5%)

Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Men’s Heavyweight)

Curtis Blaydes

• CC Rating: 1774.7
• Division Ranking: 6th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 51st out of 500 men

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

• CC Rating: 1741.2
• Division Ranking: 9th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 85th out of 500 men

Blaydes appeared to be a lock to secure a title shot against Francis Ngannou ahead of his last matchup with Derrick Lewis. Vegas oddsmakers made him a prohibitive favorite, whereas CC had Lewis as a 55.6% favorite. Blaydes got caught with a vicious uppercut and that suspended his title hopes. Prior to the Lewis fight, Blaydes strung together a 4 fight win streak that included the likes of Alexander Volkov, Junior Dos Santos, and Shamil Abdurakhimov. He can get back on track and back in line for the heavyweight title with a win here.

However, Rozenstruik is another heavyweight with one-punch knockout power. Rozenstruik has only lost twice in his MMA career. The first came against current heavyweight champ, Ngannou and the second came against current interim heavyweight champ, Ciryl Gane. With the exception of one fight in the Rizin promotion, all 12 of Rozenstruik’s career wins have come by way of knockout.

Rozenstruik’s finishing ability is impressive, but Blayde’s victories over tough opponents has him rated more highly in the end. He is a slim, but distinct favorite.

CC Projection: Curtis Blaydes (54.8%)

Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler (Men’s Middleweight)

Nick Diaz

• CC Rating: 1740.6
• Division Ranking: 22nd out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 86th out of 500 men

Robbie Lawler

• CC Rating: 1749.2
• Division Ranking: 20th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 77th out of 500 men

It has been nearly a full decade since Nick Diaz won an MMA fight. His last win came on October 29, 2011 against B.J. Penn. It’s six-and-a-half years since he fought at all. That fight was a no contest against Anderson Silva after both fighters failed drug tests. The fight was originally a win for Silva. Given the long layoff, the forecast deducted a full 100 points from Diaz’s CC Rating. No one knows what kind of Nick Diaz is going to step into that octagon.

He will face off against a familiar foe. Diaz and Lawler fought on April 2, 2004 at UFC 47. That fight ended with Diaz knocking out Lawler in the second round. Diaz was a 53.3% favorite in that fight. Lawler has been active during the 17 years between their fights. He won and held the welterweight title before losing it to Tyron Woodley. Lawler is currently on a 4 fight skid. That skid has included formidable opponents such as Rafael dos Anjos, Colby Covington, and Neil Magny. The other loss was an admitted failure by the referee in stopping the fight too early.

The long layoff brings Diaz just under Lawler in the CC forecaster, and Lawler will come in as the slim favorite. Also of note, both men are normally welterweights, but agreed to move up to contest at 185 lbs instead for this contest.

CC Projection: Robbie Lawler (51.2%)

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy (Women’s Flyweight)

Valentina Shevchenko

• CC Rating: 1872.4
• Division Ranking: 1st out of 45 flyweights (Champion)
• Overall Ranking: 2nd out of 121 women

Lauren Murphy

• CC Rating: 1686.4
• Division Ranking: 5th out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 17th out of 121 women

As former men’s middleweight title challenger, Chael Sonnen has said, we may have to re-define what it means to win against Shevchenko, because it’s become clear no one can beat her outright. It is hard to argue. During her title reign in the flyweight division, no one has been able to take more than one round off of Shevchenko. Shevchenko has only lost twice in the last decade. Both were to the only woman ahead of her in the overall rankings, Amanda Nunes (and one of them was a controversial split decision). Shevchenko’s 1872.4 represents the second highest CC rating a female fighter has ever attained (second to Nunes at 1965.2).

The next woman to try her hand at defeating Shevchenko is Lauren Murphy. Murphy comes in riding a 5 fight win streak. At a second glance, however, this may be less impressive than it seems. Two of those wins were split decisions, including one against Andrea Lee where no MMA outlets scored the fight in Murphy’s favor. However, the forecast cares only about what the judges saw. Murphy’s resume has earned her this title shot.

The forecast believes Shevchenko continues her dominance and makes her a prohibitive favorite to defend her belt for a sixth time. An upset would represent the fourth largest CC upset in the UFC’s history (on the women’s side).

CC Projection: Valentina Shevchenko (74.5%)

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega (Men’s Featherweight)

Alexander Volkanovski

• CC Rating: 1974.3
• Division Ranking: 1st out of 74 featherweights (Champion)
• Overall Ranking: 5th out of 500 men

Brian Ortega

• CC Rating: 1844.0
• Division Ranking: 3rd out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 24th out of 500 men

The world’s top featherweight will look to defend his title for the first time against someone not named Max Holloway. Others can quibble about whether or not Volkanovski deserved the split decision victory he received against Holloway his last time out.

Volkanovski’s resum speaks for itself. The last time he lost a fight was in 2013. He has won an astounding 19 straight since then. He picked up notable wins against Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, and two against the aforementioned Holloway. He has beaten the best of the best and now begins the work of cementing himself as potentially the best featherweight of all time. He is only 18 CC points away from eclipsing Holloway’s high watermark of 1992.2 for the division’s history.

Standing in his way is Ortega. Ortega’s only loss came in his prior title shot against Holloway at UFC 231. His resume includes knockout wins against UFC legends Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson, Renato Moicano, and Clay Guida (Ortega was a CC underdog in the Swanson and Edgar fights). He stands now as the #2 featherweight contender behind the champ, Volkanovski and Holloway.

While oddsmakers may have this as a somewhat close fight, the CC forecast thinks Volkanovski is being undersold and has him as a substantial favorite.

CC Projection: Alexander Volkanovski (67.9%)

Photo Credit: UFC.com