The UFC 266 prelim card features four fights across four different weight classes, including a top 15 fighter in each. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Taila Santos (Women’s Flyweight)

Roxanne Modafferi

• CC Rating: 1545.5
• Division Ranking: 32nd out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 81st out of 121 women

Taila Santos

• CC Rating: 1692.8
• Division Ranking: 4th out of 45 flyweights
• Overall Ranking: 12th out of 121 women

Modafferi, who fought in the inaugural women’s flyweight championship, once again finds herself on the same card as that belt. Since her failed title shot, Modafferi has alternated wins and losses in each of her successive fights in the UFC. During that time, she’s scored impressive wins against CC’s #11 flyweight contender Maycee Barber as well as Antonina Shevchenko. She’s also dropped fights to former title challenger Jennifer Maia and tonight’s challenger, Lauren Murphy (CC’s #5 and #4 flyweight contenders respectively).

Her road won’t get much easier in this bout against Taila Santos. Santos came into the UFC with a sparkling 15-0 record. After dropping her debut to Mara Romero Borella, Santos has strung together two straight wins. Santos is now rated as CC’s #3 flyweight contender (#12 by the official UFC rankings). With the champion in action, Santos will look to establish her championship bona fides in front of the sold out crowd.

Aside from Valentina Shevchenko, Santos comes in as the night’s biggest favorite.

CC Projection: Taila Santos (70.0%)

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus (Men’s Heavyweight)

Shamil Abdurakhimov

• CC Rating: 1664.6
• Division Ranking: 17th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 185th out of 500 men

Chris Daukaus

• CC Rating: 1661.1
• Division Ranking: 18th out of 40 heavyweights
• Overall Ranking: 195th out of 500 men

This fight features a pair of top heavyweight contenders. Abdurakhimov rounds out CC’s heavyweight rankings as the #15 contender. Abdurakhimov is an impressive 5-2 in his last 7 bouts, with the two losses coming to Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes (CC’s #2 and #4 heavyweight contenders respectively). A win here could propel him closer to the top 10 and earn him another marquee matchup his next time out.

Daukaus sits just outside CC’s top 15 contenders and hopes to change that going up against the man who holds that 15th and final spot. Daukaus has yet to register anything other than a first round KO victory inside the UFC. His most recent came against CC’s #14 heavyweight contender, Aleksei Oleinik.

The forecast has this as about as close to a tossup as you can get. The slim advantage, if you can find one, goes to Abdurakhimov.

CC Projection: Shamil Abdurakhimov (50.5%)

Dan Hooker vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Men’s Lightweight)

Dan Hooker

• CC Rating: 1746.1
• Division Ranking: 14th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 81st out of 500 men

Nasrat Haqparast

• CC Rating: 1647.5
• Division Ranking: 41st out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 220th out of 500 men

By the grace of God, it appears as if this fight will happen. Hooker had visa issues before finally getting one that will see him arrive shortly before weigh-ins. Hooker has had a tough go as of late, dropping fights to to the most recent title challenger, Michael Chandler, and upcoming title challenger, Dustin Poirier (CC’s #10 and #1 ranked lightweight contenders respectively). Prior to that, Hooker appeared to be on the path to a title shot of his own, with three straight wins that had him edge close to the top of the lightweight rankings.

Haqparast faced his own issues coming into this one. He had his own visa issues and is simultaneously dealing with the recent loss of his mother. He will look to overcome that adversity to put himself in the ranking conversation in this stacked lightweight division. He is on a two fight win streak, but both wins came against fighters ranked in the bottom 15 of CC’s lightweight rankings. He can prove definitively that’s not a fluke with a win over Hooker.

The forecast, being unimpressed with Haqparast’s strength of victory, makes Hooker the clear favorite in this one.

CC Projection: Dan Hooker (63.8%)

Marlon Moraes vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Men’s Bantamweight)

Marlon Moraes

• CC Rating: 1732.5
• Division Ranking: 13th out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 97th out of 500 men

Merab Dvalishvili

• CC Rating: 1697.1
• Division Ranking: 19th out of 80 bantamweights
• Overall Ranking: 134th out of 500 men

Marlon Moraes has come close to UFC gold a number of times. At UFC 238, he fell to then-Flyweight champion Henry Cejudo, seeing Cejudo become a simultaneous two-division champion. After beating UFC legend, Jose Aldo, Moraes fell to Cory Sandhagen (CC’s #7 bantamweight contender) in what appeared to be a fight to determine who would be the next title challenger after Aljamain Sterling. However, the division has undergone some turmoil and Moraes is looking to avoid falling out of the tumultuous picture altogether in what would be his third straight loss.

Dvalishvili, on the other hand, rides a 6 fight win streak into this bout with Moraes. That puts his UFC record at 6-2, after having dropped his first two fights inside the octagon. All 6 of his UFC wins have come by way of unanimous decision.

The forecast sees Moraes turning it around and halting the streaking Dvalishvili. Likely due to Dvalishvili’s inability to finish fights and Moraes’ strength of schedule.

CC Projection: Marlon Moraes (55.1%)

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