Update: This post has been updated to reflect Karl Roberson pulling out of this fight and being replaced with promotional newcomer, Cody Brundage.

Update: This post has been updated to reflect the postponement of Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva due to COVID protocol. The fight is now expected to take place on October 16th. As a result, Medic vs. Turner is moved to this card from the Prelim card.

The UFC 266 slate kicks off with an early preliminary card featuring four fights across four different weight classes. All projections and probabilities are generated based on a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating. You can learn more about how the CC algorithm works to generate those ratings here.

Jonathan Pearce vs. Omar Morales (Men’s Featherweight)

Jonathan Pearce

• CC Rating: 1542.9
• Division Ranking: 64th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 426th out of 500 men

Omar Morales

• CC Rating: 1622.2
• Division Ranking: 38th out of 74 featherweights
• Overall Ranking: 268th out of 500 men

The first fight of the night features a bout in the featherweight division. Pearce comes in with a 1-1 record in two UFC bouts. His debut was a knockout loss to longtime UFC veteran Joe Lauzon a mere 93 seconds into the first round. Lauzon carried a 1626.1 CC Rating into that fight, making Pearce (who debuted at 1530.0 CC) a 63.5% underdog in that fight. Pearce would turn it around in his next bout against Kai Kamaka, who has since been cut from the UFC for under-performance.

Morales has a 2-1 record in the UFC, with his one defeat coming to Giga Chikadze. Chikadze now holds an impressive 1731.1 CC Rating, making him the #13 featherweight contender according to Cage Calculus’ rankings (the #8 contender according to official UFC rankings). In his last fight, he got a unanimous decision win against Shane Young, who was at the time only separated from Morales in the ratings by 0.4 CC.

Morales has demonstrated an ability to beat opponents on his level, whereas Pearce has yet to prove himself, with his only victory being against a low performing fighter. The model is not convinced and makes Morales a healthy favorite.

CC Projection: Omar Morales (61.2%)

Matthew Semelsberger vs. Martin Sano (Men’s Welterweight)

Matthew Semelsberger

• CC Rating: 1574.8
• Division Ranking: 60th out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 367th out of 500 men

Martin Sano

• CC Rating: 1490.0
• Division Ranking: 72nd out of 74 welterweights
• Overall Ranking: 484th out of 500 men

Semelsberger has been at least a 57% underdog in each of his three appearances in the UFC octagon. He won his debut via decision against Carlton Minus last August where he came in with only a 41.5% win probability. He then followed that up with a 16-second KO of Jason Witt in March in a fight where the model only gave him a 37.3% chance. He finally fell in his most recent bout to Khaos Williams in June, where he was again the underdog with a 43.0% chance of victory.

His opponent, Sano, is making his UFC debut. It will be Sano’s first MMA fight since February of 2017, where he fought to a draw at Bellator 172. It’s been longer since Sano has won a fight, with his last victory being in April of 2014. He does, however, carry a win over the UFC’s #10 ranked welterweight contender Geoff Neal (#35 in the CC welterweight rankings). We will see if he can utilize the fact that very little is known about his style, given his extended layoff.

Semelsberger, coming off a loss for the first time in his UFC career will enter the night as a CC favorite for the first time as well.

CC Projection: Matthew Semelsberger (62.0%)

Cody Brundage vs. Nick Maximov (Men’s Middleweight)

Cody Brundage

• CC Rating: 1562.5
• Division Ranking: 46th out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 355th out of 500 men

Nick Maximov

• CC Rating: 1560.0
• Division Ranking: 53rd out of 66 middleweights
• Overall Ranking: 402st out of 500 men

Maximov makes his UFC debut on this card after a perfect 6-0 start to his MMA career. He also makes frequent appearances in the grappling only promotion run by Chael Sonnen, Submission Underground (SUG). Maximov holds a 5-5 record in those bouts.

Maximov was originally scheduled to fight fellow middleweight, Karl Roberson. However, Roberson pulled out last minute and will be replaced by Cody Brundage, another promotional newcomer. Brundage is 6-1 in 7 fights in other promotions. He scored finishes in 5 of his 6 victories. Brundage was also a two division champion in the LOC promotion.

The model, unaware of the late notice for Brundage, finds his pre-UFC resume more impressive than Maximov’s. On level terms, Brundage would be a slim favorite. Given the nature of the fight, readers may want to take this projection with a grain of salt.

CC Projection: Cody Brundage (52.9%)

Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner(Men’s Lightweight)

Uros Medic

• CC Rating: 1591.6
• Division Ranking: 61st out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 339th out of 500 men

Jalin Turner

• CC Rating: 1603.0
• Division Ranking: 56th out of 83 lightweights
• Overall Ranking: 312th out of 500 men

Medic carries an undefeated 7-0 record into this fight, his second straight appearance at a numbered UFC event. At his UFC debut at UFC 259, Medic scored a first round knockout against Aalon Cruz, a fight he was favored to win according to the Cage Calculus forecast. He faces a stiffer test this time in Turner.

Turner’s UFC debut back in 2018 was not as welcoming as Medic’s. Turner faced off against Vicente Luque (now rated as CC’s #1 welterweight contender) and lost via first round finish. Turner has gone 3-1 in his next 4 in the UFC octagon, with all three of those wins coming by finish.

The forecast has this as a very close fight, but Jalin Turner’s strength of schedule and number of finishes in the UFC make him a slim favorite.

CC Projection: Jalin Turner (51.6%)