What We Learned from UFC Fight Night (Smith vs. Spann)

After a wild night of fights at UFC Fight Night 192, there’s a little more clarity in certain divisions, potential up-and-comers are emerging, and new twists in the light heavyweight title picture.

The Cage Calculus forecast was just one of many winners last night. All in all, the forecast favorites went 11-2-1 in 14 fights. Inside the octagon, though, here are just some of the lessons we learned after last night’s slate of fights.

Anthony Smith is Knocking on Jan Blachowicz’s Door

It seems the title picture got a little more clear after Smith’s dominant first round submission victory over Ryan Spann. Or did it? The win boosted Smith in the Cage Calculus Rankings all the way to the #2 contender spot, behind only the champion, Jan Blachowicz, and the #1 contender, Glover Teixeira. Smith is now narrowly ahead of the rising Czech, Jiri Prochazka.

Smith could have called out Prochazka for a fight that would surely determine the next title contender. He could have pressed his luck and demanded the champion next. Given that Smith currently sits at #6 in the official UFC rankings, this would be a tough sell. Instead, though, he demanded a fight with Aleksandar Rakic. Rakic sits as the #3 contender in the official UFC rankings, but is only the #6 contender according to Cage Calculus.

Rakic handed Smith his last defeat in the UFC. However, since that fight, Smith has strung together a string of three straight first round finishes, whereas Rakic has only registered one decision victory against Cage Calculus’ #5 contender, Thiago Santos. These wins and finishes vaulted Smith back ahead of Rakic in the Cage Calculus rankings.

Smith and Rakic have both suggested December for a potential upcoming bout. Might this be a fight to see who gets the next crack at light heavyweight gold? Perhaps, but that would beg the question of what happens to Prochazka in the meantime, who has two stunning KO victories in his two UFC fights. At any rate, Anthony Smith has established he is firmly in the title picture in this division.

Ion Cutelaba Overlooked at Light Heavyweight?

Cutelaba looked dominant inside the octagon Saturday. He very nearly finished Devin Clark on a number of occasions. While Cutelaba may often be overlooked because of his weigh-in antics or because of the memory of him acting his way into a TKO defeat, he is worth a look in the light heavyweight division.

While sitting as the #28 ranked light heavyweight coming in, Cutelaba will crack the top 25 after this fight. He was 0-2-1 coming in, but both losses came to Magomed Ankalaev, a top 5 light heavyweight in the Cage Calculus rankings. The draw was against Dustin Jacoby, another man ranked ahead of Cutelaba. With a dominant win against someone previously thought to be on his level, Cutelaba warrants another shot at a fighter ahead of him.

Ariane Lipski Still Belongs in the Flyweight Conversation

At one point last year, Lipski found herself in the Cage Calculus top 10 in the women’s flyweight division. After suffering two consecutive losses to Antonina Shevchenko and Montana De La Rosa, Lipski fell out of the top 30 and found herself as a Cage Calculus underdog coming into a bout with promotional newcomer, Mandy Bohm.

Lipski proved she is better than her rating showed. Bohm never had a chance in this one, as Lipski dominated throughout. She gets a nice boost in the ratings, and the forecast suggests her most suitable next opponent might be hot new prospect Melissa Gatto, divisional veteran Gillian Robertson, or Priscila Cachoeira, who is riding a two fight win streak.

Arman Tsarukyan Is For Real

Tsarukyan was the heavy favorite by the Vegas oddsmakers, with a -800 money line coming in. However, the Cage Calculus forecast had him as a slimmer favorite, with only a 58.7% chance of winning. Tsarukyan proved he deserved to be a more prohibitive favorite, finishing Christos Giagos with ease. With that, he earns the respect of the model and slides into the Cage Calculus top 15.

Tsarukyan called out Dan Hooker, who is slated to fight next week at UFC 266. As of right now, Hooker would be a very slim 52.7% favorite in that fight. However, if Hooker drops next week’s fight to Nasrat Haqparast, he would likely take a significant ratings hit. At any rate, Tsarukyan is making his way up the ranks with his sights set toward the top of the division.

Don’t Count Out Raquel Pennington

In a fight fought mostly in the clinch, Pennington established she is not yet over the hill. Kianzad had her moments to take the fight, but never did. Pennington’s win moves her to the #7 contender slot. The model suggests her most even matchup next would be Macy Chiasson. We will see how Chiasson does in her upcoming bout against the returning contender, Aspen Ladd.

Erin Blanchfield Is Also For Real

Blanchfield dealt with some disappointing cancellations before making her debut. Once she did, she turned in a dominant performance in against Sarah Alpar. Granted, Alpar’s loss dropped her rating to the point where she now holds the dubious distinction of being the lowest rated women’s flyweight. Blanchfield’s domination definitely earned her a shot against more legitimate competition. Poliana Botelho, perhaps?

Photo Credit: MMANews.com

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